[MarkJames]

Anybody else reading about the (potential) car market crash ahead? Late payments and repo is way up, and vehicle values are (probably) about to roll-over from rising inventory in the wholesale market.

Late payments are rising in all states, and DC tops the list where 24% of car loan payments are now late.

 

[Deckhead]

My Dad sent me something a month or so ago about the "sub-prime car market crash" that is coming. I see a lot of SUV's and trucks that cost north of 100k. Doesn't take long to realize this isn't going to last.... my wife always wanted one of the new Navigators. Hopefully we can get one on the cheap when the prices collapse.

 

[MarkJames]

You just might.

They (the banks) are trying not to spook the market by holding back some of their vehicles released to the wholesale auctions, but the backlog is building.

 

[Tom M]

I posted about this elsewhere weeks ago.

The tables are set for this problem. Chip shortages, huge buy backs on old cars to push you into electric. The infrastructure isn't there, the ambition for people to take on debt for sure it isn't there. Probably 30% of the work force quit over mandates are financially strapped. Then there's 30% of the workforce working home which again supports the lack of ambition.
There are people in this country that either by design or by living in a bubble have promoted car leasing and monthly debt over ownership of anything. We've been told that 60% if not more couldn't handle a 1,000. Repair. So a lot of people are in a bind to go into debt to keep a car on the road or a lease payment.

If that didn't hurt supply and demand conditions there are millions of foreigners in need of wheels too. Then.... excessive home prices, taxes and utilities that encouraged people to drive into or fall behind will pay those bills before the extra family car lease.

 

[rustyjames]

I have a few friends that work at Manheim auction and say that repos are way up, like never in the past.

 

[Tom M]

Again there is a push by puppet masters to rid people if personal ownership out of suburbs into controllable cities or metropolis areas. No cars and mass transit is their preference.

Then they'll lock you up in skyscrapers at will like Shanghai.

 

[Tom M]

The gift of COVID excuse to socialism but the stage was set with bailing out the auto unions and continual annual raises of all public services through harsh national economic conditions.

 

[MarkJames]

It's more basic. Cheap money, bad loans on product with elevated (unsustainable) "values", elevated (unsustainable) demand from all the cheap money, folks over-extended as values are bound to decline, and higher cost of living. Recipe for disaster.

 

[Leo G]

The plan is working well.

You will own nothing and be happy (or else). 1st thing to go will be the cars that all Americans enjoy. Having a car equates to freedom. Take that away and for the most part you are stuck riding govt sanctioned transportation and you will go only where they are willing to take you.

 

[Robie]

Meh...we'll be fine.

 

[MarkJames]

Meh...we'll be fine.

🤮

 

[rrk]

The housing market will be right behind

 

[Tom M]

We have young soliciting adults going door to door on Segways pushing solar

 

[Tom M]

Starting feel like 08

 

[rrk]

Meh...we'll be fine.

Didn’t you hear if you can’t afford $10 gas and an overpriced car you are doing something wrong

 

[MarkJames]

Not sure about this one on fuel, but an analyst was explaining the refined %s that come out of the average barrel of oil. So.. diesel is in short supply, but not so much gas as they will try to satisfy the diesel demand. So gas may drop dramatically, but not the diesel.

 

[Pounder]

Starting feel like 08

The big difference is that the 08 crash was driven by stated income and 80/20 home loans. I knew a fellow back then that made $15 and hour and bought a $450K condo. He got an 80/20 reverse amortization loan for the full amount. Didn't have a cent of his own money in the deal.

 

[Tom M]

The housing market will be right behind

Don't forget they keep extending the student debt moratorium too .
Heavy looming problems.

 

[MarkJames]

 

[VinylHanger]

Just rolled through our local Chevy dealer the other day. Rows and rows of SUVs packed like sardines in the used lot. It was crazy.

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