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The invisible hand is still at work. Eventually things will work out, but if anyone feels they need to stock more for longer, go for it.

It's like watching Ken's carpentry on YouTube over the last year. He tracks lumber closely and fills up his garage for the upcoming projects, as he sees fit.
Look for "The Uneducated Econamist" on YouTube. He is a lumber salesman and talks about what is happening in our industry from the wholesale level so you know if material prices are moving before everyone else does. He is a "Rebel Capitalist" like I am.
 
It's coming. I posted yesterday about 2x4x8s being 10.45 each.

If that continues, there is no way we don't hit the biggest slow down we've ever seen.

It will be back to running around doing small repair work again. Only so much of that to go around.

It will be like the 80's. In our town, there were years when very few building permits were pulled the entire year. Only 2 houses were built all year. The old guys around here speak of those days in a whisper.

This time it may make the 2008 slow down look like the good old days.

We have stopped spending. We paid off most of our debt and have gotten our monthly expenses down pretty low. Just need to pay off the truck now.

I prefer saving to spending, which is new for us.

Any jobs we get will buy the needed tools. But we also don't run any big equipment, so no need to invest in that stuff.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
 
It's coming. I posted yesterday about 2x4x8s being 10.45 each.

If that continues, there is no way we don't hit the biggest slow down we've ever seen.

It will be back to running around doing small repair work again. Only so much of that to go around.

It will be like the 80's. In our town, there were years when very few building permits were pulled the entire year. Only 2 houses were built all year. The old guys around here speak of those days in a whisper.

This time it may make the 2008 slow down look like the good old days.

We have stopped spending. We paid off most of our debt and have gotten our monthly expenses down pretty low. Just need to pay off the truck now.

I prefer saving to spending, which is new for us.

Any jobs we get will buy the needed tools. But we also don't run any big equipment, so no need to invest in that stuff.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
I don't believe we'll hit a slowdown like 2008. The economy was a created bubble at that point, mostly due to stated income loans. Trillions of dollars in equity evaporated almost overnight.
I think it's a given that we're heading into to a period of inflation and a slowdown in the industry, that will eliminate the slash and burn contractors, and force the rest of us to tighten our belts a bit, but I think (hope and pray) that it will be survivable.
 
Good times, bad times, the question is always the same. Where do you put your money to make the most return. If you answer that monthly or quarterly with just your new money, you wind up with diversification.

I'm a big fan of being an opportunist. I shoot for 18mo pay back periods, but will go with 3 year.
 
Discussion starter · #25 ·
I also told my wife this week that it might get back to the point where I will have to do repairs and patch work again to fill up space if things really slow down.

I declined a chimney job the other day because I don't really like heights any more, but used to do a few a year, they are kind of easy money if you have a young back to tend for you and get those stupid blocks up the scaffold.
 
Good times, bad times, the question is always the same. Where do you put your money to make the most return. If you answer that monthly or quarterly with just your new money, you wind up with diversification.

I'm a big fan of being an opportunist. I shoot for 18mo pay back periods, but will go with 3 year.
Look into uranium, gold and silver miners. Look for anything Rick Rule from Sprott says on Youtube. 18 months from now, you can thank me with a new truck!
 
Take a cue from farmers. They have to be positioned for draught, flood, record crops.

Nobody here controls what's going to happen.
No we don't.

But we can control what we do to position ourselves to survive and thrive when we get hit with what is coming. In 1929, when the big depression hit, more millionaires where created than any other time in history. Learn about what is coming and you will do great while others are crashing.
 
Discussion starter · #32 ·
If anyone is looking to get into the stock market, there was a sale this morning on pretty much everything.

I was down 10% after open with no cash reserves to average down with.
 
I don't believe we'll hit a slowdown like 2008. The economy was a created bubble at that point, mostly due to stated income loans. Trillions of dollars in equity evaporated almost overnight.
I think it's a given that we're heading into to a period of inflation and a slowdown in the industry, that will eliminate the slash and burn contractors, and force the rest of us to tighten our belts a bit, but I think (hope and pray) that it will be survivable.
It's also different in that there aren't as many contractors in general as there used to be. A lot of guys gave up, aged out, etc. and it's not like there's a bunch of young tradespeople growing on trees. I don't see $1.5M spec houses being built in Ohio any more.
 
If investing back in the business gets you the pay back you're looking for, by all means do it.
Depends on what your business is. 100 years ago street cleaners did pretty good for themselves picking up horse crap. Back in the 50 and 60, a typewriter or TV repair shop did great too. Not so much now. This industry is going to get hit big time. It already is if you live in the liberal cities that have people moving away. Florida and Texas are booming.

Want to know why real-estate prices have gone up? Look into "Blackrock" and quantitative easing. Blackrocks ETF's are buying all the homes and renting them to you. Why? Because they know whats coming and are getting rid of all their cash and putting it into hard assets. It use to be that the Catholic church was the number one real estate holder in the world. Not anymore. Blackrock is now. Who manages Blackrock? How about the same people that manage the Federal Resurve Bank. You guys better start learning about this stuff so you can stay ahead of it and survive whats coming real quick.

Look into a plan B and a plan C. Get out of the big cities while you can. Move to more rural areas with smaller populations with more conservative neighbor help neighbor communities so when the riots hit you are not in the middle of it. If you are in a city, a good plan B is a camper. When the riots hit your area, load up the kids and book!

Get your plan B.
 
If anyone is looking to get into the stock market, there was a sale this morning on pretty much everything.

I was down 10% after open with no cash reserves to average down with.
We are in a fear trade right know. Everything is going down not just the stock market. Look at crypto's and metals and other sectors, they are all dropping.
 
I don't believe we'll hit a slowdown like 2008. The economy was a created bubble at that point, mostly due to stated income loans. Trillions of dollars in equity evaporated almost overnight.
I think it's a given that we're heading into to a period of inflation and a slowdown in the industry, that will eliminate the slash and burn contractors, and force the rest of us to tighten our belts a bit, but I think (hope and pray) that it will be survivable.
2008 was just part of the great reset that started when the FED was created on February 23rd, 2013. That lead to the government outlawing citizens from holding gold on June 5th 1933 which lead to Richard Nixon taking us off the gold standard on August 15th 1971.

We are now at the end of the great reset. Nothing is going to survive this. Everything is going to drop when we get hit with the next black swan event. Then everyone is going to flock to hard assets. When that happens that is when the people holding the gold and sliver will sell and swoop in and buy all the equipment and properties that people will be giving away just like what happened in 1929 but much much worse.

Why is it that all national banks all over the world are buying all the gold they can? Why is it that some countries now like China will put you in jail if you try to take any gold out of the country? Why is it that the last time the Federal government allowed an audit of our countries gold reserves in Fort Knocks was back in 1953? No one knows if it's there anymore. If it's there, why has the Fed not allowed it to be audited anymore?

People, I hope some of you that are reading this wake up and start dedicating time to learning whats going on so you know what to do to protect yourselves.
 
I've felt very apprehensive over the past year about holding too much cash.

Obviously have to have enough to remain liquid and pay your monthly bills, but I've been doing more spending than usual on tools and equipment with this fear that if I don't get it while I can....I might not be able to afford in the future.

Anyone else have that kind of nagging feeling going into this year?

I ordered a new walk behind trowel that took me days to source, found one in Utah. I have a ride on coming in April (hopefully)....everyone else told me they were out until June or later, picked up a whole pile of M18 batteries after my supplier told me his prices were jumping big time.

I'm trying to maintain the balance though, and it's tough.

I'm curbing it now because of the winter slow down, but I have a million plans that I want to put into action as soon as I can safely make them happen. I just have this feeling of dread that running up to the next recession we are going to see inflation just keep flying.
NCBY this is for you.

 
Discussion starter · #40 ·
No, it doesn't. A good investment is a good investment, period.
I had to explain this to someone else recently too.

They asked why I wasn't putting more into the market right now.

I told them the return on equipment we buy is probably higher over the next few years than the return on the market.

Increasing our efficiency increases the speed we can make profit.
 
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