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"The recession is likely over."

These are the words of Fed Chairmen Ben Bernanke, however, his use of elusive words like "likely" worries me and bit. Maybe I'll tell the credit card that I will most likely pay them this month depending on the growth of our economy that has most likely emerged from recession. I'll ask them to hold the finance charges and late fees until the third quarter GDP numbers are finalized.

Bernanke also said that interests rates will stay "exceptionally low" for an "extended period". Well, the stack of unpaid bills on my kitchen counter is getting "exceptionally" high and I'm a little worried about spending an "extended period" in debtors prison.

This declaration of independence of the worst recession in 80 years comes at a time when the majority of the federal stimulus money is getting dolled out in the country's 2010 fiscal year which starts this month. So by this time next year, we'll be rolling in jobs and money. Well, in the spirit of nebulous discussion, I will go on record and say, perhaps.

I will also say that in my observation of Bernanke since he took over for Alan Greenspan in 2006, he has been "exceptionally" careful with what he says publicly. It seems like the whole World hangs on his every syllable, so I doubt that he would make statements like this if they were not "relatively" close to being accurate.

So the US is likely out of the recession however unemployment is still rising and construction billing continues to decline. The problem, is that construction, of course, shows lagging response to the growth of the economy, so we may have to wait until Bernanke removes the tricky adjectives (or are they adverbs?) from his prepared statements before we're seeing real-life improvement before our eyes.

Despite Mr. Bernanke's aversion to commitment, I think we can all feel very optimistic about America's resilience and our ability to emerge, alive and kicking from a horrific economic state. However, this is only likely to be the case.
 

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Curmudgeon
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You are accusing someone else
of making statements with no substance?
Two questions.
Where can I get weather forecasts with
an iron clad guarantee?
How many of your posts will it take
to stuff a nice sized pillow?
(They seem to be the purest of fluff.)
 
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I've finally located some of the (traceable) stimulus money actually being spent.

One of our local unions (utilities) got $683 mill, - - they're now working unlimited overtime.

They admit themselves there's nothing to do.

On the lighter side, though, - - some, though still accepting the OT and all it's money (who wouldn't??), - - are smart enough to be worried about how in the world are their children ever going to be able to pay all this waste back??

Correct Answer;

They'll NEVER be able to, - - but what they will get to do is
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SUFFER HEAVILY for it . . .


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Isnt construction one of the last groups to notice a recession is over? Isnt the only thing to determine a recession is like 3 months of no GDP growth? And to determine a recession is over something like 3 months of growth? I could be wrong it is early and didnt sleep well, also I an no economist and would never even want to claim to be one. The markets are all going up which it might be false hope but my wife is in the finacial planning industry and they get more busy as the market climbs, false hope or not. In turn helps keep her job secure.
 

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when the economy is so low though.. a small increase in vital economic services could technically make it seem as though we are through it. I don't really see it, I see that things that have been put off till the last possible time are being done.. all the houses I have looked at this year have been in HORRIBLE condition. Don't think we are out of it yet.
 

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It ain't over. But, if you live in Neverneverland, it is all good. Never mind those 300,000 new foreclosures each month. Never mind that 47 states reported higher unemployment (still rising), never mind that the housing market ain't just flooded, it's saturated beyond hope of recovery unless we bulldoze some houses down. Never mind that the only houses that are selling are going for 1/3 their old value.

One of these days, people will figure out, the only way to beat this problem, is to create jobs. No, not service jobs. Real jobs.
 

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Isnt construction one of the last groups to notice a recession is over? Isnt the only thing to determine a recession is like 3 months of no GDP growth? And to determine a recession is over something like 3 months of growth? I could be wrong it is early and didnt sleep well, also I an no economist and would never even want to claim to be one. The markets are all going up which it might be false hope but my wife is in the finacial planning industry and they get more busy as the market climbs, false hope or not. In turn helps keep her job secure.
Actually the definition of recession is 2 quarters of negative GDP. For a recession to be over, there must be 2 consecutive quarters of positive GDP.

So far, we haven't had 1 quarter of positive gdp.

One other thing. A recession is now determined by a group of economists, with the old definition playing little or no impact. They declared a recession when we hadn't even had 1 quarter of neg. growth.

Things certainly have changed!!:eek:
 

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Head Grunt
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This recession isnt over, at least not here. If anything it is just starting to have an impact here, this area will be a long time coming out of it i believe. The phone isnt ringing as much as usual, there are only 2 new homes going up right now in about a 30 mile radius. I have a bid on one but the owner is up i the air of whether to hire me or do it himself. He is a contractor by trade and his schedule this winter will decide whether i have the job or not. If he is slow he will wire it himself to keep himself busy. The home is his mother-in-laws, her home burned last winter so she has her insurance check to pay with. Time will tell.
 

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I agree that the hit has just or not so much JUST but has definately taken it's toll here. It could go either way here. Alot of money to just be hording it like they are. And it is their properties that are suffering in alot of cases :(
 

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"The recession is likely over."

These are the words of Fed Chairmen Ben Bernanke, however, his use of elusive words like "likely" worries me and bit. Maybe I'll tell the credit card that I will most likely pay them this month depending on the growth of our economy that has most likely emerged from recession. I'll ask them to hold the finance charges and late fees until the third quarter GDP numbers are finalized.

Bernanke also said that interests rates will stay "exceptionally low" for an "extended period". Well, the stack of unpaid bills on my kitchen counter is getting "exceptionally" high and I'm a little worried about spending an "extended period" in debtors prison.

This declaration of independence of the worst recession in 80 years comes at a time when the majority of the federal stimulus money is getting dolled out in the country's 2010 fiscal year which starts this month. So by this time next year, we'll be rolling in jobs and money. Well, in the spirit of nebulous discussion, I will go on record and say, perhaps.

I will also say that in my observation of Bernanke since he took over for Alan Greenspan in 2006, he has been "exceptionally" careful with what he says publicly. It seems like the whole World hangs on his every syllable, so I doubt that he would make statements like this if they were not "relatively" close to being accurate.

So the US is likely out of the recession however unemployment is still rising and construction billing continues to decline. The problem, is that construction, of course, shows lagging response to the growth of the economy, so we may have to wait until Bernanke removes the tricky adjectives (or are they adverbs?) from his prepared statements before we're seeing real-life improvement before our eyes.

Despite Mr. Bernanke's aversion to commitment, I think we can all feel very optimistic about America's resilience and our ability to emerge, alive and kicking from a horrific economic state. However, this is only likely to be the case.
Now,now.You can't believe everything you read on the internet..Thant's how WWI got started...
 

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Actually the definition of recession is 2 quarters of negative GDP. For a recession to be over, there must be 2 consecutive quarters of positive GDP.

So far, we haven't had 1 quarter of positive gdp.

One other thing. A recession is now determined by a group of economists, with the old definition playing little or no impact. They declared a recession when we hadn't even had 1 quarter of neg. growth.

Things certainly have changed!!:eek:


Bravo brother, bravo -- and it had to be said so thanks for saying it.

Do you think we'll see GDP growth in the 3rd quarter? Larry Kudlow seems to think so. He says because of the rise in the stock market we will see some, albeit small, 3rd and 4th quarter growth. It's the falling value of the dollar that we need to be concerned with.
 
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