Seems Like Some Hoodwinking Going On...to Me. - Health & Safety - Contractor Talk

Seems Like Some Hoodwinking Going On...to Me.

 
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Old 04-06-2020, 10:08 AM   #1
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Seems Like Some Hoodwinking Going On...to Me.


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HUGE! Official IMHE Model for Coronavirus Used by CDC Just Cut Their Numbers by Half!... They're Making It Up As they Go Along!
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/202...king-go-along/
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Old 04-06-2020, 01:49 PM   #2
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Re: Seems Like Some Hoodwinking Going On...to Me.


Who the hell knows what's going on.


At home deaths in NYC are up about 10x from normal, but Covid isn't listed as the cause of death unless they had a prior positive test.


Same with older folks with a lot of co-morbidities, they might be listed as dying from pnemonia or organ failure, but how many had Covid when it happened?


I don't think we will see honest numbers from any place until next year after the dust settles.

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Old 04-06-2020, 03:49 PM   #3
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Re: Seems Like Some Hoodwinking Going On...to Me.


They don't really have models yet, much less validated ones.

They're guessing at the model parameters.

Garbage in, garbage out.
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Old 04-06-2020, 07:17 PM   #4
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Re: Seems Like Some Hoodwinking Going On...to Me.


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Originally Posted by hdavis View Post
They don't really have models yet, much less validated ones.

They're guessing at the model parameters.

Garbage in, garbage out.
I thought that was known and expected about models. Kind of like a model of a building. Most people know it's not the real thing.


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Old 04-06-2020, 09:18 PM   #5
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Re: Seems Like Some Hoodwinking Going On...to Me.


LOL!

It turns out there us a yearly prediction competition for the flu. They have 20 years of data they can use to get calibrated models for a flu season. They're decent at predicting.

They don't have enough info to come up with even basic parameters for building their models for covid. They aren't broken, they just don't really exist.
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Old 04-07-2020, 10:39 AM   #6
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Re: Seems Like Some Hoodwinking Going On...to Me.


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Originally Posted by hdavis View Post
LOL!

It turns out there us a yearly prediction competition for the flu. They have 20 years of data they can use to get calibrated models for a flu season. They're decent at predicting.

They don't have enough info to come up with even basic parameters for building their models for covid. They aren't broken, they just don't really exist.
Those pesky changing variables...
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Old 04-07-2020, 01:00 PM   #7
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Re: Seems Like Some Hoodwinking Going On...to Me.


State of the art flu modeling, but any technique relying on historical data is a Non starter.
Wrong link......
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Old 04-07-2020, 01:12 PM   #8
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Re: Seems Like Some Hoodwinking Going On...to Me.


A long article, but note only the Delphi technique would be useful this year for sure, and probably another year or two:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02755-6
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Old 04-07-2020, 08:29 PM   #9
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Re: Seems Like Some Hoodwinking Going On...to Me.


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Those pesky changing variables...
How dare they have variables in information on a disease that never existed before.
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Old 04-07-2020, 08:45 PM   #10
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Re: Seems Like Some Hoodwinking Going On...to Me.


Why even give numbers if you're just going to pull them out of the air?


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Old 04-07-2020, 09:26 PM   #11
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Re: Seems Like Some Hoodwinking Going On...to Me.


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Why even give numbers if you're just going to pull them out of the air?


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Justification...
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Old 04-07-2020, 09:37 PM   #12
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Re: Seems Like Some Hoodwinking Going On...to Me.


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Originally Posted by Calidecks View Post
Why even give numbers if you're just going to pull them out of the air?


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How else would you dupe the population.
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Old 04-07-2020, 09:45 PM   #13
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Re: Seems Like Some Hoodwinking Going On...to Me.


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How else would you dupe the population.
They have to seem like they know what they're talking about, and they have to make allocation decisions
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Old 04-07-2020, 10:11 PM   #14
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Re: Seems Like Some Hoodwinking Going On...to Me.


I think everyone is so scared to be even a bit wrong on the lesser side that they over compensate.

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Old 04-07-2020, 10:25 PM   #15
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Re: Seems Like Some Hoodwinking Going On...to Me.


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Originally Posted by VinylHanger View Post
I think everyone is so scared to be even a bit wrong on the lesser side that they over compensate.

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I believe that's correct. With death being a very real consequence of underreacting, I think people are deciding along the "theory of regret". If they don't do all this stuff, they may regret it.

Last edited by hdavis; 04-07-2020 at 10:30 PM.
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Old 04-07-2020, 11:35 PM   #16
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Re: Seems Like Some Hoodwinking Going On...to Me.


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I believe that's correct. With death being a very real consequence of underreacting, I think people are deciding along the "theory of regret". If they don't do all this stuff, they may regret it.
The scary part is how the next one will be used...

Look how far they got on this one... what justification is there NOT to?...
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Old 04-07-2020, 11:50 PM   #17
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Re: Seems Like Some Hoodwinking Going On...to Me.


I actually think they need a better set of actions with finer location. Maybe state House districts, and their representative gets responsibility, maybe incorporated areas are the correct unit, with unincorporated areas being county responsibility.

One thing is for sure, the state's are flatfooted in this.

It makes no sense to me to have the same level of response in high density areas and low density areas. I also think the 3-4X higher rates for African-anerucans us going to be a bug clue to figure out. I suspect it's a mass transit effect, as I expect the difference between NYC and KA is mass transit.
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Old 04-08-2020, 06:45 AM   #18
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Re: Seems Like Some Hoodwinking Going On...to Me.


I said earlier plan for the blizzard and hope for the dusting.

The thing is it's one thing to be wrong on a two day storm and another thing for devastating financial fallout this long. This could be the point where people draw the line with the sensationalism of the media
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Old 04-08-2020, 07:32 AM   #19
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Re: Seems Like Some Hoodwinking Going On...to Me.


The only problem is that as we get along in this fiasco and it seems to be winding down, they are now implementing more stringent rules when in fact things should be loosening up.

The fact that they are labeling all deaths that have anything to do with covid is asinine. He was beheaded in a horrible car crash but he just came from a nursing home were there were people who tested positive. So he might have had the virus. Oh, another covid death statistic. They don't even have to test for it now. Instead of a .1 you get a .2 at the end of the insurance classification for death by covid. The .2 means no test was done and it was assumed to be covid.

My local rags headline was Deaths Jump to 227, Hospital Rates Slow

Only reason they jumped is the reclassification. Of course they jumped. If the administrator even thinks it might be a covid related death it gets marked as one.

Just look at how all the other deaths have fallen. Covid is a miracle, it's stopped all the heart attacks and cancer deaths.
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Old 04-08-2020, 08:12 AM   #20
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Re: Seems Like Some Hoodwinking Going On...to Me.


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Covid is a miracle, it's stopped all the heart attacks and cancer deaths.
Is that true?

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