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Old 05-14-2019, 07:29 AM   #61
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Re: Tariffs And Trade Battle - Thoughts?


There was a guy on the radio this morning from some US-China manufacturing association or something. Among other things, he said they are already noticing small US manufacturers who produce for export...now looking to relocate out of the US to places like SE Asia and Mexico. And that the Chinese who source from us are already looking for alternative suppliers.
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Old 05-14-2019, 07:36 AM   #62
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Re: Tariffs And Trade Battle - Thoughts?


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Old 05-14-2019, 07:53 AM   #63
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Re: Tariffs And Trade Battle - Thoughts?


Quote:
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There was a guy on the radio this morning from some US-China manufacturing association or something. Among other things, he said they are already noticing small US manufacturers who produce for export...now looking to relocate out of the US to places like SE Asia and Mexico. And that the Chinese who source from us are already looking for alternative suppliers.
What this does is scare people and companies from doing business with China and pushes them to do business with other countries instead because at this time they will be a safer bet and tariff free.

This will interrupt China's one road one belt ongoing push and make them spend money to prop it up while their customers are all finding new tariff free vendors.
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Old 05-14-2019, 09:18 AM   #64
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Re: Tariffs And Trade Battle - Thoughts?


Americans spend less than 3% on Chi-com products.


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Old 05-14-2019, 09:20 AM   #65
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Americans export less than 1% to the Chi-coms.


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Old 05-14-2019, 09:20 AM   #66
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Americans spend less than 3% on Chi-com products.


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Hard to think that's possible since every time you look at a Made In label it says China.
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Old 05-14-2019, 09:23 AM   #67
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Re: Tariffs And Trade Battle - Thoughts?


Personal spending

How Much Do We Buy From China?

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It feels like everything we buy comes from China. In fact, less than 3 percent of personal spending in the U.S. goes to China, according to a new report from the SF Fed.

That's partly because most personal spending goes to things like health care and housing that are, by definition, produced in the U.S.

But even when you look at the "goods" category, Americans spend way more on stuff that's made in the U.S. than on stuff that's made in China.

For the big-ticket items in the durable goods category (cars, furniture, etc.), about two thirds of personal spending goes to stuff made in the U.S. Just over 10 percent goes to China.

For smaller stuff — food, clothes, gas, etc. — 76 percent of personal spending goes to goods made in the U.S., and 6 percent goes to goods made in China.

If all that's true, why does it feel like everything we buy is made in China?

Three possibilities come to mind (though I'm sure there are others).

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1. We buy a lot of cheap stuff from China. So we notice the volume of stuff, but not the fact that it accounts for a small chunk of our overall spending.

Of all the subcategories the report breaks out, "clothing/shoes" is the only one where we spend more on Chinese goods than on U.S. goods. But clothing and shoes accounts for only 3.4 percent of our total spending.

2. We're always hearing about our big trade deficit with China. In May, for example, our exports to China totaled $7 billion , and our imports from China totaled $29 billion. That is indeed a big deficit. But that $29 billion in imports is tiny compared with the overall size of the U.S. economy: Our economic output is well over $1 trillion per month.

3. U.S. manufacturing jobs have been disappearing for years. But that doesn't mean the U.S. manufacturing industry is disappearing. U.S. manufacturing is growing over the long term — but it's shifting more and more into high-tech systems that don't require factories full of assembly-line workers.

Note: When I say "personal spending," I mean personal consumption expenditures, a category that accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2...-goes-to-china




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Old 05-14-2019, 09:31 AM   #68
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Re: Tariffs And Trade Battle - Thoughts?


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Old 05-14-2019, 10:17 AM   #69
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Re: Tariffs And Trade Battle - Thoughts?


What amazes me is once again... People are acting like this is all new News. Like it is just suddenly becoming known.

They called anyone who tried to alert people about his conspiracy nuts and anti trade idiots.

Most of us have known this was a problem for a long time.

What is good is that China is starting to lose market share to other countries.

A lot of the clothes I see are from Vietnam or Sri Lanka, etc. A lot of the tool totes and containers are made in Israel. A good amount of edged tools like chisels are made in England.

Lots of tools are now made in the USA. Not all are great, but I'd rather buy a middling tool made here than one made somewhere else.

The other thing I've really noticed is pet toys and food/treats are made in the US, or from our Western Allies.

China nuked thier pet industry with the melamine fiasco.

I dont buy any edible pet anything from there. Most stores are catching on as they are stopping carrying the Chinese treats and chews and go to American made. Even Walmart is moving hugely in that direction.

I'll pay more for stuff. Don't even notice more than a small difference anyway.

Like was said above though, I won't buy American just because it's American. It has to be decent and worth it.

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Old 05-14-2019, 03:22 PM   #70
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Re: Tariffs And Trade Battle - Thoughts?


Being a little cynical here...

We should have a one world government so that everyone plays by the same rules.

Tariffs suck.

Losing intellectual property and recieving poor quality knock offs suck more.

Subbing, and then losing critical skills, as well as creating military and technicalogical weaknesses, also sucks.

I am not sure we can have it all.
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Old 05-14-2019, 06:37 PM   #71
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...
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Old 05-14-2019, 06:39 PM   #72
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I'm going to drop this in here, just for the commentary. These guys have lived in china for 15 years or so, and have some great commentary to help take the pulse. Maybe we're helping to accelerate something.

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Old 05-14-2019, 07:27 PM   #73
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Re: Tariffs And Trade Battle - Thoughts?


Interesting hearing normal peoples take from over there.

That one article they briefly put up that the average Chinese debt has increased by 51.5% is really interesting. That does not work with Communism or their culture.

The idea of Communism is work to get what's fair. When you borrow you are leveraging what you have to get what you want. That works with us because traditionally we invest in ourselves. That doesn't work in a fixed system like communism, essentially any borrowing there is a ponzu scheme.

Anyhow, some great insight.

I'm trying to refrain from politics but I have to believe this is right up Trumps alley. Say what you want about the guy but he understands how to leverage debt. This is a place where I want him probably more than any other president to date, because he's on my team and he has always been good at tightening the screws on major players...

The more I'm reading about it, the more I'm thinking we've bloated them so much in the past decade, we are the ones with the upperhand. It depends on how far they're willing to push their people.
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Old 05-14-2019, 08:17 PM   #74
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Re: Tariffs And Trade Battle - Thoughts?


In China's case, I think the argument can be made the harder they are pushing back, and the more personal ways they describe it, the more it's illustrating a fiscal fault line they're afraid is going to give way before the ruse runs out...

Time will tell...
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Old 05-14-2019, 08:42 PM   #75
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Wait until the young people in China rebel against the old guard! Watch out. China is all smoke and mirrors!

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Old 05-14-2019, 08:46 PM   #76
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Re: Tariffs And Trade Battle - Thoughts?


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Old 05-14-2019, 08:48 PM   #77
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Re: Tariffs And Trade Battle - Thoughts?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Deckhead View Post
Interesting hearing normal peoples take from over there.



That one article they briefly put up that the average Chinese debt has increased by 51.5% is really interesting. That does not work with Communism or their culture.



The idea of Communism is work to get what's fair. When you borrow you are leveraging what you have to get what you want. That works with us because traditionally we invest in ourselves. That doesn't work in a fixed system like communism, essentially any borrowing there is a ponzu scheme.



Anyhow, some great insight.



I'm trying to refrain from politics but I have to believe this is right up Trumps alley. Say what you want about the guy but he understands how to leverage debt. This is a place where I want him probably more than any other president to date, because he's on my team and he has always been good at tightening the screws on major players...



The more I'm reading about it, the more I'm thinking we've bloated them so much in the past decade, we are the ones with the upperhand. It depends on how far they're willing to push their people.
Ponzu scheme... Does that go well with pork?

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Old 05-15-2019, 01:19 AM   #78
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Re: Tariffs And Trade Battle - Thoughts?


Quote:
Originally Posted by META View Post
Being a little cynical here...

We should have a one world government so that everyone plays by the same rules.

Tariffs suck.

Losing intellectual property and recieving poor quality knock offs suck more.

Subbing, and then losing critical skills, as well as creating military and technicalogical weaknesses, also sucks.

I am not sure we can have it all.
It's always a foot race. China is catching up by taking advantage every way they can. It doesn't have to be a level playing field, it just has to be level enough.

Like a lot of other countries, they have culture driven issues with quality.
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Old 05-15-2019, 07:57 AM   #79
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Re: Tariffs And Trade Battle - Thoughts?


Part of an article on how we gave away and are giving away the store to China.

The United States normalized relations with the People's Republic of China in 1979 and gave it most-favored-nation status the next year, according to CRS. In 1985, the first year for which the Census Bureau has published U.S.-China trade data online, the U.S. ran a $6,000,000 merchandise trade deficit with China. That equaled approximately $13,791,382 in December 2018 dollars (adjusted using the Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation calculator).



In 2018, according to the Census Bureau, the U.S. ran a $419,162,000,000 merchandise trade deficit with China.
That means that in inflation-adjusted dollars, our merchandise trade deficit with China was 30,393 times bigger last year than it was 33 years before then.
Who is winning this competition?
In January 1980, the year we extended most-favored-nation status to the People's Republic of China, there were 19,282,000 Americans employed in manufacturing, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This January, there were only 12,826,000. As our population and economy grew, we lost 6,456,000 manufacturing jobs.
At the same time America was losing manufacturing jobs, Americans who did not attend college were losing income.

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In 1980, according to the Census Bureau Table H-14, American households where the householder was 25 and older and had finished four years of high school but not attended college had a median income of $55,777 in constant 2017 dollars.
In 2017, according to Table H-13, households where the householder was 25 and older and had graduated from high school but not attended college had a median income of $44,970 in constant 2017 dollars.


From 1980 to 2017, the real median income of households headed by Americans who completed high school but did not attend college dropped by $10,807 -- or about 19.4 percent.
Those American householders now have little hope of getting a job assembling an iPhone -- unless they can somehow get a Chinese work visa and move to Zhengzhou.
And even if they were to do so, as The New York Times reported, they would join a workforce whose wages start at $3.15 per hour.
The U.S. Constitution united the American people in a vast free-trade zone that was coterminous with our international borders. It gave Congress the power to impose duties on foreign imports.
It did not envision creating a free-trade zone between this free republic and a People's Republic.
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Old 05-15-2019, 08:23 AM   #80
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Re: Tariffs And Trade Battle - Thoughts?


Which is why Trump shutting the unfair trade practices with China is a good thing.

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