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Hurricane Florence

 
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Old 09-13-2018, 04:33 AM   #101
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Re: Hurricane Florence


Tangent post alert.

I heard that putting at least a half twist in the straps keeps them from harmonically resonating in the wind. Not sure how commonly that is done, but fyi.

Carry on.
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Old 09-13-2018, 05:11 AM   #102
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Re: Hurricane Florence


Big news this morning. Today was the day that it had to increase. Looks like wind shear has caught it early and started to degrade the eye. Doesn't mean it can't strengthen but for it to get to a major hurricane again is highly unlikely. It is supposed to slow down a little today and further weaken.

Massive amounts of rain. For areas not used to hurricanes the wind will still be able to do some damage. The difference between 125 sustained and 105 sustained winds is HUGE. Coast are still going to see probably 6-10 ft storm surge, especially to the north east side. That's very dangerous and will take out as much as anything.

Hoping for more disorganization later today so we hear about a Cat 1 making landfall. Info will be coming in fast when it gets in radar range.
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Old 09-13-2018, 09:47 AM   #103
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Re: Hurricane Florence


Little change in the past 5 hours which is good. It is over the area where it would have strengthened and it didn't. The pressure has moved up 10 millibars as well which is also a good sign for it entering a weakening stage. It has started to interact with the outerbanks so it is most likely as strong as it will be.

It has slowed to 10mph movement now. If the high that is building over the mountains moves faster than this thing it might get pretty tore up and end up at the southern point of the projection cone.

Bottom line, it is going to have a very broad area of impact along that coast and a direct hit could be quite a ways off of the projected track. It is going to do some damage but nothing like a major hurricane would have.

My best guess is it makes landfall at around 90-100 mph sustained winds. Still nothing to scoff at but avoids unimaginable damage that would have been done if it came in at 135mph winds.

That creepy calm is probably around the Carolinas right now. Night landfalls are really eery. We'll be saying a prayer for you guys tonight!

Edit: Feel obligated to tell people that it will probably still generate some tornadoes close to the eye. All bets are off when one comes through. They don't last long in a hurricane but they can be strong.
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Old 09-13-2018, 09:50 AM   #104
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Re: Hurricane Florence


What would be best is if the high pushes through quickly (18-24 hrs ahead of schedule) and Florence slows to the point it follows the high out to sea. Unlikely but would be best case that I haven't seen pointed out yet.
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Old 09-13-2018, 10:10 AM   #105
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Re: Hurricane Florence


Looks like it's starting to interact with the land. Good luck to everyone there.
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Old 09-13-2018, 12:54 PM   #106
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Re: Hurricane Florence


Quote:
Originally Posted by Deckhead View Post

Edit: Feel obligated to tell people that it will probably still generate some tornadoes close to the eye. All bets are off when one comes through. They don't last long in a hurricane but they can be strong.
Irma came through here around midnight. It sounded like semis were driving by all night long. Water spouts were coming a shore and turning into miny tornados all around us. We also had at least 10 tornado warnings on our cell phones until cell service was lost.
It was a rough night for sure...
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Old 09-13-2018, 06:17 PM   #107
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Re: Hurricane Florence


Obligatory "Reporter doing their best to remain upright just to tell us the storm is BAD and meanwhile, everyone else has left town"
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Hurricane Florence-reporter-standing-hurricane-wind.jpg  
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Old 09-13-2018, 06:52 PM   #108
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Re: Hurricane Florence


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Obligatory "Reporter doing their best to remain upright just to tell us the storm is BAD and meanwhile, everyone else has left town"
This, right here is why the media sucks. It says 105 mph sustained winds on that show as if that's what is where he's at. NOAA at 7pm said one place has recorded sustained winds of 65kt (about 75 mph). The numbers for the Eyewall are 105 mph and its still a ways out.

The media hypes things like this and I personally think it's dangerous. It's almost as if they glorify it. Serious news is even entertainment based now.
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Old 09-13-2018, 07:05 PM   #109
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Re: Hurricane Florence


They hype it to get people to leave and heed the warnings.


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Old 09-13-2018, 07:21 PM   #110
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Re: Hurricane Florence


Quote:
Originally Posted by Californiadecks View Post
They hype it to get people to leave and heed the warnings.


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They're doing it right now. Trying to get people to leave right now would be dangerous bud.
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Old 09-13-2018, 07:25 PM   #111
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Re: Hurricane Florence


Quote:
Originally Posted by Deckhead View Post
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They're doing it right now. Trying to get people to leave right now would be dangerous bud.


Winds are 85 with gusts at 120. In Wilmington. That's substantial.


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Old 09-13-2018, 07:25 PM   #112
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Re: Hurricane Florence


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Old 09-13-2018, 07:39 PM   #113
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Re: Hurricane Florence


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You're really going to troll around, find something I post and ruin the thread?
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Old 09-13-2018, 07:44 PM   #114
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Re: Hurricane Florence


That is a problem... the hype...and some get carried away with category only and let their guards down because it's downgraded to a 2. Yes thank god no 4 or 5, but a 2 is very much a substantial storm with the potential for many other variables, e.g.surge, flooding, speed and direction etc.... and this one seems to have it.

I'm still predicting this will be pretty bad regardless with the copious amounts of water this things is pushing and putting down. Less wind, but with already soaked tundra could equate to damages seen from much more powerful storms...just my airchair analysis of course

...and the time this thing is going to hover over the coast...just not fair play vs. one that's whizzing by.
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Old 09-13-2018, 08:00 PM   #115
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Re: Hurricane Florence


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That is a problem... the hype...and some get carried away with category only and let their guards down because it's downgraded to a 2. Yes thank god no 4 or 5, but a 2 is very much a substantial storm with the potential for many other variables, e.g.surge, flooding, speed and direction etc.... and this one seems to have it.

I'm still predicting this will be pretty bad regardless with the copious amounts of water this things is pushing and putting down. Less wind, but with already soaked tundra could equate to damages seen from much more powerful storms...just my airchair analysis of course

...and the time this thing is going to hover over the coast...just not fair play vs. one that's whizzing by.
Yup. The damage can never be predicted. 2 miles can make a HUGE difference in damage total.

Seems like water is the determining factor in this case. Also an area that isn't prepared for hurricanes a 2 there can be pretty nasty. I just don't like it when they try to play it up while they're there. It's not a show and they shouldn't treat it as such.
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Old 09-13-2018, 08:15 PM   #116
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Re: Hurricane Florence


The tide schedule is not helping with this one.
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Old 09-13-2018, 08:27 PM   #117
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Re: Hurricane Florence


Quote:
Originally Posted by Californiadecks View Post
They hype it to get people to leave and heed the warnings.


Mike.
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Who can forget this hype from Shep Smith last year....

"You are going to die and so are your kids"

That's a direct quote.
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Old 09-13-2018, 08:39 PM   #118
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Re: Hurricane Florence


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They hype it to get people to leave and heed the warnings.


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Nah, they’re doing it to get you to watch their channel.

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Old 09-13-2018, 08:57 PM   #119
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Re: Hurricane Florence


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Nah, they’re doing it to get you to watch their channel.

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To see them lose their footing and get swept off camera.
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Old 09-13-2018, 09:13 PM   #120
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Re: Hurricane Florence


Looks like a lot of rain.............

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