Signs Of Recession - Post Your Own - Business - Contractor Talk

Signs Of Recession - Post Your Own

 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 03-06-2019, 07:33 AM   #1
Pro
 
MarkJames's Avatar
 
Trade: Handyman Services
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 8,649
Rewards Points: 13,323

Signs Of Recession - Post Your Own


Based on your own past experiences, what are some of the big and small signs that your market may be about to change. Things you pay attention to, things that seem unusual, canary in the coalmine, stuff.

I'm taking note that traffic at HD is lighter, though it could just be the pre-spring pause.

Less "for sale" signs, too.
MarkJames is online now  

Warning: The topics covered on this site include activities in which there exists the potential for serious injury or death. ContractorTalk.com DOES NOT guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained on this site. Always use proper safety precaution and reference reliable outside sources before attempting any construction or remodeling task!

   

Advertisement

 

Old 03-06-2019, 08:33 AM   #2
Pro
 
Lettusbee's Avatar
 
Trade: General Contractor
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Ft Collins, CO
Posts: 2,572
Rewards Points: 802

Re: Signs Of Recession - Post Your Own


Subcontractors actually start answering their phones.



Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Advertisement

Lettusbee is offline  
The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to Lettusbee For This Useful Post:
hdavis (03-06-2019), Jaws (03-07-2019), Old Bird (03-12-2019), pinwheel (03-06-2019)
Old 03-06-2019, 09:09 AM   #3
Pro
 
MarkJames's Avatar
 
Trade: Handyman Services
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 8,649
Rewards Points: 13,323

Re: Signs Of Recession - Post Your Own


Quote:
Originally Posted by Lettusbee View Post
Subcontractors actually start answering their phones.



Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
And when they call you. I'm getting calls from notable people (pita workers) to see if I "have anything". They were pushing their weight around not too long ago.
MarkJames is online now  
The Following User Says Thank You to MarkJames For This Useful Post:
Lettusbee (03-06-2019)
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
Old 03-06-2019, 09:45 AM   #4
Pro
 
Fishindude's Avatar
 
Trade: Industrial
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Indiana
Posts: 389
Rewards Points: 828

Re: Signs Of Recession - Post Your Own


We always track leads, and when leads and prospects start slowing down, you can bet your workload slow down will follow. Seems like we experience a pretty significant "dip" is the workload every 7-10 years. Residential work falls off first, then commercial industrial lags about a year behind. Been pretty good times since about 2009-2010, so we're about due for another.

I've come to the conclusion that there isn't really much you can do to combat it and there is no point in getting down in the gutter beating yourself to death against the low price guys. Just tighten your belt, take care of your good clients and do a good job on the work that is available. These dips in the economy are why contractors need to stay out of debt and maintain a surplus of working capitol. Not unusual for these slow periods to last 18 months or more.
Fishindude is offline  
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Fishindude For This Useful Post:
Jaws (03-07-2019), KAP (03-07-2019), MarkJames (03-06-2019)
Old 03-06-2019, 11:07 AM   #5
Pro
 
hdavis's Avatar
 
Trade: remodeling
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: CoastalME
Posts: 23,108
Rewards Points: 1,998

Re: Signs Of Recession - Post Your Own


There can be things you can do. There was a roofer that bought a boatload of black arch shingles dirt cheap at auction when the big downturn hit 15 or so years ago.

Nobody else could make a profit on a black arch shingle roof for a couple years if he bid it.

When there is a downturn and excess inventory starts piling up, it may get sold cheap. Warehousing cost has to be figured in, so some materials may not be worth buying.
hdavis is online now  
Old 03-06-2019, 03:26 PM   #6
back doors to hell put in
 
Irishslave's Avatar
 
Trade: Carpenter
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Google knows
Posts: 3,788
Rewards Points: 1,766

Re: Signs Of Recession - Post Your Own


Your local Home Depot becomes an employment agency
__________________
Television is fake...The internet is real
Irishslave is offline  
Old 03-06-2019, 04:03 PM   #7
Pro
 
woodspike's Avatar
 
Trade: remodeling
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: miami
Posts: 204
Rewards Points: 502

Re: Signs Of Recession - Post Your Own


Quote:
Originally Posted by Irishslave View Post
Your local Home Depot becomes an employment agency
becomes ?
woodspike is offline  
Old 03-06-2019, 05:27 PM   #8
Pro
 
jhark123's Avatar
 
Trade: Pro Cat Herder
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Enumclaw, WA
Posts: 2,503
Rewards Points: 1,700

Re: Signs Of Recession - Post Your Own


The equipment rental salesman was bitching to me on the phone today, I took note.
jhark123 is online now  
Old 03-06-2019, 06:27 PM   #9
Pain+Reflection= Progress
 
Kana's Avatar
 
Trade: Heavy Underground
Join Date: Nov 2018
Location: CA
Posts: 11
Rewards Points: 24

Re: Signs Of Recession - Post Your Own


How it's worked in the past:
Home Builders kick off the economy when coming out of a recession. Naturally, Commercial follows the home builders (people need somewhere to shop don't they?) This is typically the height of the economy which means the fed is usually increasing interest rates to slow the movement (the banks create money on a daily basis via loans, that's their job, it becomes exponential and money grows too fast the fed removes the ability to borrow cheap money). At this point the economy begins to slow and the Gov't pumps money into the public sector for fed, state, and local gov't projects. So i usually follow the flow of money and work in each sector.
This time around is a little different because the fed hasn't moved the interest rates...so we'll see how it pans out. My home builders all said they will continue building throughout 2019. I'm already shifting my work towards the commercial builders (better profits and less manpower). I'd guess we have a couple more years until a pull back, depending on the political environment and interest rate movements.
What I look for:
1) New Home sales decline
2) Home prices decline
3) Building Permits are declining
4) Commercial on the rise or fall? # of permits filed?
5) Yield Spread (indicates the likelihood of a recession or recovery one year forward. The spread equals the difference between the short-term borrowing rate set by the Federal Reserve and interest rates on longer term treasury notes, determined by bond market activity)
__________________
To be effective you must not let your need to be right be more important than your need to find out what’s true. If you are too proud of what you know or of how good you are at something you will learn less, make inferior decisions, and fall short of your potential.
Kana is offline  
The Following User Says Thank You to Kana For This Useful Post:
jhark123 (03-07-2019)
Old 03-06-2019, 08:14 PM   #10
LRG WoodCrafting

 
Leo G's Avatar
 
Trade: Maker of Fine Sawdust
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Windsor Locks, Connecticut
Posts: 39,979
Rewards Points: 9,901

Re: Signs Of Recession - Post Your Own


No signs for me yet. Still too much work, lots of catching up.
__________________
Sawdust Follows Me Everywhere
I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.
Sanding is the bane of my existence
WWG1WGA

Quote:
Originally Posted by HusqyPro View Post
Carpenter by day.
Mad scientist by night.
http://lrgwood.com
Custom Cabinets in Hartford County Connecticut
Leo G is online now  
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Leo G For This Useful Post:
Big Johnson (03-06-2019), Calidecks (03-06-2019), Robie (03-07-2019)
Old 03-06-2019, 08:17 PM   #11
Pro
 
Big Johnson's Avatar
 
Trade: Contractor Grunt
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Michigan
Posts: 3,966
Rewards Points: 3,834

Re: Signs Of Recession - Post Your Own


No signs here.
Big Johnson is online now  
Old 03-06-2019, 11:50 PM   #12
GC/carpenter
 
Calidecks's Avatar
 
Trade: Decking, Railing, Carpenter/General Contractor
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Anaheim Hills, California (OC)
Posts: 36,244
Rewards Points: 16,748

Re: Signs Of Recession - Post Your Own


I don't see the end in sight. Things are stellar here. But then again, there's lots of old money in OC.


Mike.
_______________
Calidecks is online now  
Old 03-07-2019, 12:01 AM   #13
back doors to hell put in
 
Irishslave's Avatar
 
Trade: Carpenter
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Google knows
Posts: 3,788
Rewards Points: 1,766

Re: Signs Of Recession - Post Your Own


Have to wait for numbers. Recession is defined as 0% GDP or negative GDP.

3rd quarter 2018 3.4%

4th quarter 2018 2.6%

1st quarter 2019 not in yet but if it's trending down that means it's slowing down. i'd wait for 2nd quarter 2019 for a better idea
__________________
Television is fake...The internet is real
Irishslave is offline  
Old 03-07-2019, 12:05 AM   #14
3 Jacks 2 Nines
 
bwiab's Avatar
 
Trade: Wannabe Homebuilder
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Arvada Colorado
Posts: 351
Rewards Points: 290

Re: Signs Of Recession - Post Your Own


Not a sign of recession, but a sign of the peak... deals for flips are very hard to find because of increased competition among "investors"... everyone is an investor... and they're pushing up prices on mediocre deals to the point where the deal doesn't pencil, but still gets purchased as an investment at a ridiculous valuation...
bwiab is offline  
Old 03-07-2019, 12:14 AM   #15
back doors to hell put in
 
Irishslave's Avatar
 
Trade: Carpenter
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Google knows
Posts: 3,788
Rewards Points: 1,766

Re: Signs Of Recession - Post Your Own


Quote:
Originally Posted by bwiab View Post
Not a sign of recession, but a sign of the peak... deals for flips are very hard to find because of increased competition among "investors"... everyone is an investor... and they're pushing up prices on mediocre deals to the point where the deal doesn't pencil, but still gets purchased as an investment at a ridiculous valuation...
Home prices are just stupid everywhere. I wouldn't even think about buying now. Even the garbage is too high
__________________
Television is fake...The internet is real
Irishslave is offline  
The Following User Says Thank You to Irishslave For This Useful Post:
overanalyze (03-07-2019)
Old 03-07-2019, 07:40 AM   #16
Pro
 
Tom M's Avatar
 
Trade: GC/ Interior & Exterior Remodeling
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Bergen County, NJ
Posts: 9,566
Rewards Points: 3,098

Re: Signs Of Recession - Post Your Own


Its interesting, I still have quite a bit and have had trouble making to estimates. I dont employ in house labor so if its not a mechanical or a big phase to frame or rock Im the carpenter.

I do feel something is different though. I think there was some pent up energy to do stuff once a Republican was elected. It may be wearing off a bit to a steady less hectic flow but it is possible that over inflated houses and lower tax returns make this spring less exciting. Overall there is still too much positive the President is doing to help our cause. The only economic negative would be if the opposing party succeeds at taking him out and implementing all of their punishing taxes.

Sorry to drag politics into it but its a factor
Tom M is online now  
Old 03-07-2019, 07:49 AM   #17
water re-locater
 
NYgutterguy's Avatar
 
Trade: Gutter installer
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: orange/rockland ny NYC suburbs
Posts: 6,736
Rewards Points: 6,538

Re: Signs Of Recession - Post Your Own


Quote:
Originally Posted by Irishslave View Post
Have to wait for numbers. Recession is defined as 0% GDP or negative GDP.

Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NYgutterguy is online now  
Old 03-07-2019, 07:53 AM   #18
Pro
 
MarkJames's Avatar
 
Trade: Handyman Services
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 8,649
Rewards Points: 13,323

Re: Signs Of Recession - Post Your Own


If/when homes are fully valued, and stocks are fully valued, it might be time for a normal little shake-up.
MarkJames is online now  
Old 03-07-2019, 08:31 AM   #19
Member
 
Eyeway!'s Avatar
 
Trade: Electrical
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 63
Rewards Points: 146

Re: Signs Of Recession - Post Your Own


Quote:
Originally Posted by Californiadecks View Post
I don't see the end in sight. Things are stellar here. But then again, there's lots of old money in OC.


Mike.
_______________
Kinda of ironic that it went bankrupt.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Eyeway! is online now  
Old 03-07-2019, 08:40 AM   #20
Pro
 
Tom M's Avatar
 
Trade: GC/ Interior & Exterior Remodeling
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Bergen County, NJ
Posts: 9,566
Rewards Points: 3,098

Re: Signs Of Recession - Post Your Own


Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkJames View Post
If/when homes are fully valued, and stocks are fully valued, it might be time for a normal little shake-up.

I agree its likely. Im glad we're fighting to bring work back here to support our citizens welfare. Unfortunately flooding the country with more dependents would force more welfare from the government and water down those non union citizens trying to be self dependent.

Advertisement

Tom M is online now  


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Post standoffs kambrooks Decks & Fencing 11 06-01-2013 11:36 AM
Exterior Wood Post to Concrete bwiab Construction 4 04-11-2013 11:06 PM

Join Now... It's Fast and FREE!

I am a professional contractor
I am a DIY Homeowner
Drywall Talk is for
PROFESSIONAL CONTRACTORS ONLY!

At DrywallTalk.com we cater exlusivly to professional contractors who make their living as a contractor. Knowing that many homeowners and DIYers are looking for a community to call home, we've created www.DIYChatroom.com DIY Chatroom is full of helpful advices and perfect for DIY homeowners.

Redirecing in 10 seconds
No Thanks
terms of service

Already Have an Account?