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-   -   How Long Was the Boom, Really? (https://www.contractortalk.com/f11/how-long-boom-really-30971/)

Putty Truck 12-18-2007 01:21 PM

How Long Was the Boom, Really?
 
I figure that the boom started around 2/2002 and ended roughly a year ago...say 12/2006?

That's only 4 years, so it was not as much of a boom as a fart. I hope everyone who did profit saved their money.

wackman 12-18-2007 02:13 PM

That's pretty much how the cycle goes. A few years of Ok, a few years of good, a few years of bad, back to a few years of ok.

Think about it. Late 70's good, early 80's bad, mid 80's ok, late 80's good, early 90's bad, late 90's not as good but not bad, small slow down at 9/11, then boom.

This last ten years has been exceptionally good to real estate overall because of the tech bubble bursting, Clintons great economy and then the great loan programs.

If you can, buy property now and hold on to it, because the same people who were spending way too much in bidding wars before and now won't buy even at great discounts, will be spending way to much again rather soon.

My opinion.

Wack

GregS 12-18-2007 02:41 PM

Boom. Bust. Echo. Buy in the bust, sell in the boom, repeat. Good book.

gofrugal 12-18-2007 02:44 PM

Hard part is to find the bottom.
How many of you think its bottom?
I am in seattle area and hardly I can find anything interesting.

kc4mqm 12-18-2007 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wackman (Post 339081)
Think about it. Late 70's good, early 80's bad, mid 80's ok, late 80's good, early 90's bad, late 90's not as good but not bad, small slow down at 9/11, then boom.

This last ten years has been exceptionally good to real estate overall because of the tech bubble bursting, Clintons great economy and then the great loan programs.


Wack

I only question 2 things you said here. I remeber the late 80's as being as bad as it is now. We had a terriable drought that time as well, especially in 88. Work was so slow then, we were on unemployment and doing anything we could do, as far as work went, to make a buck.

Clinton:laughing:

I won't say much as to keep from starting a political war (never discuss politics and religon). My opinion is that he started us into this that we're in. Yes the economy was good while he was in office but that's really not him that made it so. He's the one that got these crazy loans going that when the intrest rates went up, everyone that had one of them either went into forclosure or is struggling with thier nose barely out of the water. Don't get me wrong, I'm not pating GW on the back neither. He could have done something to prevent all of this. Looking back, it was pretty easy for someone to spot it coming. I guess if we had a president in the construction field instead of oil, we would be rich now. Just look at them gas prices.:furious:

At least this is what I've seen in Georgia.

bookie 12-18-2007 03:16 PM

The residential "boom" started in about 1993-94. It took a small blip during the 2000 Nasqurash, then another around 9/11, but it's been running pretty much full-tilt since 95.

I came into construction in 91 or so, and switched to residential in 93. Got the t-shirt 'n all! I mean, we had people standing in line to buy homes. Waiting all night for the lottery to start, you know?

I expect it will be late-2009 or so before big builders get all stupid again. To them activity = success and they have very serious cases of ADD. I think consumers will start spending money again around mid-2008. Real money, not house-as-ATM money.

That's all I got in my crystal ball :whistlingbookie

ockitchensolver 12-18-2007 03:18 PM

You ain't seen nothing yet, hold on to your proverbial worn out dungerees next year, because if all this chatter about the free fall in the housing market is even half true, then without a doubt, it will drag construction into the gutter with it, and when that happens, then a recovery will not be possible for a few years.
Everything goes in cycles, a few good years, a few neutral years, and a few great years, basically feast or famine, its just now the components that cause the famine are more complex, and more worldwide than before, and of course with a lot of the wealth of the nation going into war funding who knows.:sad: ?

wackman 12-18-2007 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kc4mqm (Post 339108)
I only question 2 things you said here. I remeber the late 80's as being as bad as it is now. We had a terriable drought that time as well, especially in 88. Work was so slow then, we were on unemployment and doing anything we could do, as far as work went, to make a buck.

Clinton:laughing:

I won't say much as to keep from starting a political war (never discuss politics and religon). My opinion is that he started us into this that we're in. Yes the economy was good while he was in office but that's really not him that made it so. He's the one that got these crazy loans going that when the intrest rates went up, everyone that had one of them either went into forclosure or is struggling with thier nose barely out of the water. Don't get me wrong, I'm not pating GW on the back neither. He could have done something to prevent all of this. Looking back, it was pretty easy for someone to spot it coming. I guess if we had a president in the construction field instead of oil, we would be rich now. Just look at them gas prices.:furious:

At least this is what I've seen in Georgia.

You're right about the timeline, it depended on where you were in the country and I was trying to show it in round, simple numbers. There is a bunch of wiggle room in the timeline but the general point was made. So for you 88 was the beginning of the bad early 90's.

You're also absolutely correct that Clinton isn't the one who set up that good economy. I was just referring to how the economy was at the time he was in office. (for the record I don't think he was a bad prez).

The loan programs were a double edged sword. It helped stimulate tons of growth and appreciation which created the equity (our lifeblood) for all these folks to buy bigger, better houses with nice kitchens, baths and additions.

It also helped a lot of people buy homes who really couldn't before. They talk about all the forclosures but that is largely sensationalized by the media. Of all the subprime loans that were done only a small percentage are actually in default. Over half weren't even ARMs. The vast majority of people who got a house through one of those loans are making their payments fine.

The real culprit for how bad the industry is right now is the media, I doubt things will get a whole lot better until after the election. People just pay way more attention to scary stuff. They have got people so scared right now that they're huddling in fear while great opportunities got right past them.

I, for one, am picking the ripest fruit.

kc4mqm 12-18-2007 03:37 PM

Well said! I can agree with that.
You know, if people would stop being scared and spend a little money, then the whole economy will pick up. That always happens around election time. People don't know what's about to happen.
I say we elect Charlie Daniels President, whatcha say?:laughing:


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