Peak Oil?

RYANINMICHIGAN

You guys ever heard of this theory? do you think we will run out of oil in our lifetime?

jvcstone

well, the oil that comes out of the ground is a finite resource, and eventually it will be gone. Unlike ground water, it does not get recharged from the surface, and the geological processes that result in an oil deposit take millions of years. In other words, we are using the stuff at a faster rate than momma nature can replace.

The big debate is just how long the existing supplies will last, and how willing we are to rape the planet to squeeze out a few more years supply. Some say the end will come during the 2020's while others push that back to maybe the 2050's. I'm not sure if those calculations even include the massive deposits of oil sand up in canada, which I understand contain as much oil reserve as all the reservoirs currently in production. It's just going to be rather expensive to get it out of the sand, but at 70 bucks a barrel, I bet they are working on it.

Best bet we have is expanding technology in alternative energy sources, such as bio diesel, methane, and hydrogen to push the old work truck down the road.

JVC

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John VanCamp
www.jvcstoneworks.com

AAPaint

Umm....don't be fooled. There is plenty of oil...that has nothing to do with the supply or prices. It's the refining that effects the prices. I think it was chevron that passed around a memo stating that they need to reduce refining capacity to increase the price and make more money....look what happened when katrina hit, and everything since. The price of fuel right now is nothing more than a legal price gouging scheme. I understand inflation, but the price of gasoline has almost quadrupled in my liftime....that is far beyond normal inflation. Here's an interesting article about oil.....not saying I agree or disagree with any of the article, but it does cover many points of view. http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P89219.asp

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AA Quality Painting & Pressure Washing LLC
Jacksonville Painters
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Woz the Painter

When i was 16 in 1969,i had a part time job pumping gas at a local station. I belive premium was 24/9 and regular was 21/9 per gallon, and yes we were required to pump the gas, clean your front and rear windows, and ask if you'd like your oil checked. By those numbers, gas has increased 12 fold, yet when i see oil people on TV they say prices haven't kept up with inflation. Big oil says they have to raise prices because the barrel price is skyroceting, yet i have never heard any ask, or them explain, how they have record profits across the board. I read a four part article about the oil sands in Canada, which jvcstone previously mentioned, they are huge, and according to the article they become profitable to refine at $30- $35 a barrel. Now with barrel prices over $70, why aren't we tapping into them, instead of relying on OPEC? Why haven't we increased our capacity to refine ethanol, as Brazil has done?

Kristina

It's my understanding that the Oil Cos are actually jacking up prices based on *projected* not actual shortages.

Umm wouldn't it be more prudent to wait until the actual shortage to gouge people? Oh wait, then they wouldn't make scads of money in advance of the shortage. Right. Got it.

They say now it's so they don't have to "dramatically" raise prices later.

Whatcha wanna bet they do it anyway?? Now AND then.

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jvcstone

This is a copy of a post I made on another forum thread on this topic.
My education is in geology, I have worked in the oil biddness, and have friends that still do, though most are at retirement age now. Since I actually work with stone, I'm always tired, so who needs to retire

The deal is that the huge profits are coming because the big oil companies are multilevel. For instance, Exxon's exploration division drills the wells, and then the production division pumps the oil, than the exxon controlled pipeline, or the exxon owned tankers transport the crude to the exxon refinery where your gas, diesel, heating oil etc is made. I'm just using the exxon name as an example --there are probably a half dozen major players but with all the mergers and buyouts it's hard to know who is who anymore.

Adriana's chart is right on target. The biggest cost in a gallon of gas is the crude.
But since the same company that makes the profit from the finished product also makes the profit from the crude and all the other costs in between that chart does not show the real picture. The obscene profits of the biggies are due to the artificially inflated price of crude--not the cost you pay at the pump. Company owned retailers are told what to price their gas at, independents can either fall in line, or cut their own throats. Oh, and another thing many of you might not realize. Doesn't matter what the name on the station is, the gas all comes out of the same tank at the storage depot. Only difference if any is the little bit of additive put in in the truck.

JVC

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John VanCamp
www.jvcstoneworks.com

slickshift

Those Strategic Reserves are just that
Strategic Reserves
The powers that be have determined that it's a good idea to hold onto some known friendly and stable oil reserves and keep them in the ground for a rainy day
You know, a day when it starts raining camels from the giant nuke some yahoo set off in the Middle East, (zebras from Africa, armadillos from Venezuela etc...)

They just want to make sure we'll still have a supply to tide us over just in case
At least 'till we invent something better than dead dino juice to base our economy on
...which we won't do until we run out of it

joasis

Growing up in oil counrty gives me a little background in the topic, and I alwasy think about what we were told years ago: The "easy to get" oil is gone, but it was only 25% or less of what is under Oklahoma. The cost to get the rest will be high, but obtainable. From everything I have read or heard on the subject, IMO we have huge reserves available, it is the cost to produce, or the profit potential to drive the production..whichever way you choose to look at it. I guess from a political point of view, maybe we are engaged in a course to burn the world oil supply and maintain our own in the ground.

RYANINMICHIGAN

i was just wondering if anyone has put much stock into what some people are saying about running out of oil completely. That would be a bad time I would think

joasis

Food for thought: We all understand demand drives price, supply meets demand, under-supply drives prices higher, over-supply lowers prices. The Arabs figured this out long ago. They KNOW what we consume, they KNOW what we import, and obviously, the way to keep the market high, and produce less, is never over produce. Simple, huh? Now, throw in the GROWING world demand, and rising prices, and the picture becomes clearer. Now...lets assume someone finally prooves the world supply of oil, without a doubt, and deduces that we have reached the maximum production, and from this point forward, oil production DECLINES...now guess what oil will be worth? An economist stated in a doomsday scenario, that oil would be as expensive as blood.

My grandfather died in 1985, and he said one day water would cost as much as gasoline...and look at bottled water prices...of course, that is an artificial market.....imagine life with gasoline un-obtainable by any but the super wealthy.

Floorwizard

Imagine if we ran on milk!

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"in 20 years you will regret more what you did not do than what you did"

Mike Finley

I thought Canada was tapping them? I met a Canadian couple about 2 weeks ago from that region and they said they were going like gang busters up there. The only thing they wanted to know was if Canada has more oil than Suadi Arabia, how come they have to pay almost $5.00 a gallon for it?

AAPaint

http://www.questionsquestions.net/docs04/refinery.html

Need I say more?

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-AAPaint

AA Quality Painting & Pressure Washing LLC
Jacksonville Painters
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Woz the Painter

The supply and demand question is moot. We have had the opportunity since the 70's to do what Brazil has done, because of politics and corporate plunder we are more at risk to being held hostage for gas as never before. We've had 30+ years to deal with this, yet nothing has been resolved, because when prices go down a little, everybody gets used to the increase, and say's gee there not so bad. If we would keep the pressure on businees and government constant, we just might see results.

joasis

Supply and demand is not a moot point...just imagine if everyone in America would not buy gasoline for 1 day, or even better, 1 week...how about if the avergae consumer would buy 1 less tank of gas a month...do the math...if we could drop demand by 3%, prices would fall significantly. The problem is: People still have the attitude of let the other guy do it, I am not going to cut back. Kinda like a Kennedy lecture on everyone should drive an economy car, while he is looking out the tinted windows of his limo.

Woz the Painter

Or like when "W" tells Americans to cut back on gas, then jumps on AF1 with 3 or 4 other planes of reporters, advance staff etc. to go bike riding in California.