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Hurricane Florence

 
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Old 09-11-2018, 12:15 PM   #61
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Re: Hurricane Florence


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Our son was vacationing on the Outer Banks with his family. Left Sunday to avoid the hassle of the Monday evacuation.

Tom
Very wise decision, itís tough to get out of there with normal weekend traffic
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Old 09-11-2018, 12:18 PM   #62
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Re: Hurricane Florence


Whatever happens when it gets here, it's looking like a crappy few days for a bunch of people. Best wishes sent that way for all of them.
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Old 09-11-2018, 12:44 PM   #63
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Re: Hurricane Florence


The latest models show a direct hit on Wilmington

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Old 09-11-2018, 01:29 PM   #64
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Re: Hurricane Florence


Ventusky has upgraded the forecast. It uses the ICON Euro model. Looks like it touches land at 2pm on Thursday, the eye hits Friday at 5am at Davis. But then it plows inland and dissapates Saturday at 5am around Fayetteville.

So that's a lot better than hanging around off shore maintaining the potential for heavy rainfall days on end.
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Old 09-11-2018, 01:41 PM   #65
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Re: Hurricane Florence


The heck with Florence. I've just gotten over an inch of rain in the last 20 minutes.
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Old 09-11-2018, 02:32 PM   #66
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Re: Hurricane Florence


Still raining down there? Who'd you piss off?
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Old 09-11-2018, 02:34 PM   #67
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Re: Hurricane Florence


The usual....
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Old 09-11-2018, 04:04 PM   #68
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Re: Hurricane Florence


Just heard. "Tremendously wet."

So there ya go.
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Old 09-11-2018, 04:50 PM   #69
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Re: Hurricane Florence


The angle of approach...500 miles wide, cat 4 maybe a 3 or worse a 5 as she hits...just remember the destruction of cat 1 Sandy in 2012 with a 5ft surge and similar angle of approach and what it did to the jersey shore and NYC.

Unfortunately, lives will be altered as well as landscapes with Flo...there's just no getting around it...thoughts and prayers go out to those about to lose everything they worked for...lets just hope they don't lose their lives as well.
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Old 09-11-2018, 04:58 PM   #70
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Re: Hurricane Florence


One guy uo here left to go get relatives in NC and bring them up to Maine. I'm pretty sure the drive is going to stink.
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Old 09-11-2018, 05:18 PM   #71
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Re: Hurricane Florence


Hereís one I just heard

Waiting for a hurricane is like , waiting for your father to come home and , whoop your but

And your mother threatening that maybe he will, or maybe he wonít
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Old 09-11-2018, 05:19 PM   #72
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Re: Hurricane Florence


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The angle of approach...500 miles wide, cat 4 maybe a 3 or worse a 5 as she hits...just remember the destruction of cat 1 Sandy in 2012 with a 5ft surge and similar angle of approach and what it did to the jersey shore and NYC.

Unfortunately, lives will be altered as well as landscapes with Flo...there's just no getting around it...thoughts and prayers go out to those about to lose everything they worked for...lets just hope they don't lose their lives as well.
Waaaay different situation. Sandy hit the NY harbor which is built basically on a landfill. This is hitting an area that is traditional beach front. Sand actually alters the courses of water. When Charlie (cat 4) hit us in '04 it cut an island in half. The beach sands diverted some of the water because the island acted as a new channel. This directed water flow back towards the harbor and an estuary.

Not saying it's going to be nothing cause it's going to be something, but WAY different scenario than Sandy. A 500 mile storm will do the most damage in about a 40 miles swath on the NE side of the storm. In a cat 4 it's VERY extensive damage in that swath. Everything outside of that will get the flooding, and some wind damage, most of the rain will occur outside of that. Tornadoes will be prolific on the NE side of the storm inside of the 20 miles mark or so.

Still has a chance to downgrade but it's close enough now it'd be time to go. Take pictures of everything you have, best is to make a video after putting price tags on stuff for insurance. 100 miles inland will get you far enough out of the way of the wind if staying in a hotel.

Time to make a decision though. I'd recommend leaving because you can leave in 3 directions and be pretty safe.
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Old 09-11-2018, 05:45 PM   #73
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Re: Hurricane Florence


I understand, but Sandy made a right angle landfall slightly north of AC in Brigantine NJ...traditional beaches along the entire coast got devastated and are still recovering today...6 years later. It was the worst natural disaster in NJ history.

Flo is going to make Sandy look like child's play in scale, but similar in approach which really compounds surge damage.

Fla has much deeper coastlines compared to much of the east coast which can dissipate surge more efficiently than shallow water...I got a bad feeling on this one...
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Old 09-11-2018, 05:56 PM   #74
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Re: Hurricane Florence


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I understand, but Sandy made a right angle landfall slightly north of AC in Brigantine NJ...traditional beaches along the entire coast got devastated and are still recovering today...6 years later. It was the worst natural disaster in NJ history.

Flo is going to make Sandy look like child's play in scale, but similar in approach which really compounds surge damage.

Fla has much deeper coastlines compared to much of the east coast which can dissipate surge more efficiently than shallow water...I got a bad feeling on this one...
Our coastline is EXTREMELY shallow. Almost like no other in the world and is one of the big dangers because it is all warm water for 140 miles off our gulf coast. We'll know much more after it passes the jet stream. Looks like some are predicting a 20kt wind sheer which would be a God send. The Bermuda High is moving as well which is kinda good if it interferes enough to keep it off the coast to let it deteriorate when it stalls.

It's more the equivalent of a Hugo type (1980's) than Sandy.
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Old 09-11-2018, 06:27 PM   #75
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Re: Hurricane Florence


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Our coastline is EXTREMELY shallow. Almost like no other in the world and is one of the big dangers because it is all warm water for 140 miles off our gulf coast. We'll know much more after it passes the jet stream. Looks like some are predicting a 20kt wind sheer which would be a God send. The Bermuda High is moving as well which is kinda good if it interferes enough to keep it off the coast to let it deteriorate when it stalls.

It's more the equivalent of a Hugo type (1980's) than Sandy.
I think I misunderstood a guy who was talking about it last night...indeed FLA does have shallow coastlines according to a map i'm looking at. Maybe he meant surge is punctuated as it approaches from deep water and suddens upon shallow water at the shoreline?....vs shallow water extending further out? I stand corrected but am still unsure which effect is worse.
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Old 09-11-2018, 06:53 PM   #76
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Re: Hurricane Florence


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I think I misunderstood a guy who was talking about it last night...indeed FLA does have shallow coastlines according to a map i'm looking at. Maybe he meant surge is punctuated as it approaches from deep water and suddens upon shallow water at the shoreline?....vs shallow water extending further out? I stand corrected but am still unsure which effect is worse.
The opposite coast of me is pretty deep. It's bad and good. It's good because the surge isn't like a wave, it's a wall of water that gets taken from nearby water. If it's shallow it lessens the amount of surge that can be there. (Google Sarasota bay Hurricane Irma and you'll probably find some pictures of the bay being empty, places that are usually 4-8 ft underwater are mud while it approached.). Bad because the water never cools down much from surface temp acting as one of the main ingredients for a major storm.

The reason deepwater is bad is because it literally has an infinite (not infinite but more than it could ever carry) amounts of water to draw from for surge. The benefit is that it will draw cool water from the bottom if it stalls out and moves slow.

This thing if it stalls over the jet stream 100 miles from shore will see significantly less wind damage but probably more rain. If it hits as a cat 4 and stalls then all bets are off, could be the most destructive storm the nation has ever seen in modern times depending on population density.

Good news, but shouldn't be used to lull people into a false sense of security is that a cat 4 has not landed above the northern coast of Florida since the 1950's or so. That means conditions usually aren't conducive to sustaining this type of energy in that area. If it moves slow as it moves north it will start to deteriorate. If it moves quickly (like now) it could be that perfect storm.

Most storms that are strong like this are small and compact. The fact this is a decent sized storm actually is a good thing for signs of it starting to go towards a down fall. Mathew a couple years ago was a cat 3 (maybe 4 for a bit?) just off our East coast. Was primed to be that perfect strafe of the coast where it moves over the coastline but stays over the warm Waters to keep the sustained winds with no shear. It ended up staying a little further off our coast than suspected and slowed. It started to fall apart as it moved north of Jacksonville slowly in the deep Gulf Stream. It ended up landing as a low cat 2 I believe. Could have been a HUGE disaster if it was just 20 miles closer.

So, the way we can sum this up is it could be anything between a, "dammit that's a lot of wind and rain" or a "Holy **** everything is gone". Err on the side of caution. When one has the chance of being the big kahuna, it's wise to stay way clear.

I was there for the aftermath of Andrew. It is truly jaw dropping. Like nothing anyone has ever seen unless they've seen bombs dropped on cities or the aftermath of a cat 5
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Old 09-11-2018, 07:04 PM   #77
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Re: Hurricane Florence


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I think I misunderstood a guy who was talking about it last night...indeed FLA does have shallow coastlines according to a map i'm looking at. Maybe he meant surge is punctuated as it approaches from deep water and suddens upon shallow water at the shoreline?....vs shallow water extending further out? I stand corrected but am still unsure which effect is worse.
It is nice to have a conversation with someone else who finds these things interesting though.

Most people don't look into them and just repeat what they hear. Seems like you have that same strange intrigue going on.

Edit:. Just re-read this and realized it sounded like I was being sarcastic. I wasn't. I was trying to say it's cool that you are looking into it so in depth.
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Last edited by Deckhead; 09-11-2018 at 08:30 PM.
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Old 09-11-2018, 07:44 PM   #78
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Re: Hurricane Florence


Here's where I was at this time last year...


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Old 09-11-2018, 08:33 PM   #79
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Re: Hurricane Florence


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Here's where I was at this time last year...

https://youtu.be/1ucvdtmIDNc

https://youtu.be/eVf3eiuxk14
That one was a real butt clencher. Eye went directly over us but only as a Cat 2. That was a big storm for being so strong. Crazy how bad you guys 80 miles away got it too.

We dodged a bullet with it going over the Everglades first and not into the bay and back onshore near Ft Myers.
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Old 09-11-2018, 09:12 PM   #80
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Re: Hurricane Florence


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That one was a real butt clencher. Eye went directly over us but only as a Cat 2. That was a big storm for being so strong. Crazy how bad you guys 80 miles away got it too.

We dodged a bullet with it going over the Everglades first and not into the bay and back onshore near Ft Myers.
Yeah that saved us for sure. It was a 24 hour event here. We had a wind gust up to 120 mph. The 92 was before the power went out.

All in the middle of a remodel...






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