2010 Is Going To Be HUGE!

nEighter

funny. Back way back in the day there was an idea that every 50yrs your debt was wiped free. So if at 50yrs ( a set date) everyones debt was whiped clean. Every 7th year all debt for those years was due. So every 7 yrs you had to pay all your debt off, and every 50th yr you could write off your debt.

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hbelectric

2010 could be a good year for some, but overall the construction idustry is dead in the water or so is credit.

HusqyPro

Locally I think there's going to be some work at UofI next year. Fraternity/sorority houses are due for renovation. The law school is moving to Boise and the building is going to be renovated, the ag buildings are due for renovation.

WSU is looking to go vertical and get more space with taller buildings.

Potlatch Mill is gearing up for a big turnaround sometime next June.

It actually might be ok around here next year.

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thorroofer

Every body has to have a roof. Roofing I Hope will pick up and fly

KennMacMoragh

I am thrifty too, I've never owned a new vehicle and I spend less than I make. But I am a cynicist, being optimistic never did me any favors. I've found being optimistic will just blind me to things that can go wrong. If you want to be optimistic, that's fine but still be prepared for the worse. Keep money stowed away in your account, enough to live on for at least six months in case your income ever got totally cut off. There's all kinds of predictions for 2010, I'm starting to believe too that it will boom. But bottom line is we don't know, I am still putting away as much money as I can.

LNG24

Even in a Boom, the 6 month rule is crucial. Actually, its during the boom that you can actually tuck away 6p month of living expenses. I'd venture to bet that very few, including myself , actually have applied this rule.

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Larry
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curtis foote

thank you mike for the positive attitude I feel the same way I am a new contractor with very little working capitol what are some good ways to get my name out there i have tried things like lead sevices that have rediculois prices

highgear

I agree. People are starting to get those projects started. I think they are tired of waiting and now they are going for it. Work was almost at a stop at the beginning of the summer now I am booked until Jan. The great thing is they are all referrals.

KennMacMoragh

Lots to be said on that, but sounds like a topic for another thread.

marketingmaven

I think it all depends on what area of the country we are talking about. Some areas are hit worse than others. In the DC area, unemployment has remained steady, mostly because of government hiring. I watch real estate each month and average prices are going up while days on the market are decreasing. Our inventory is way down and we are seeing multiple offers again, even though the county I reside in was one of the worst hit for foreclosures. Are there more to come? Probably.

Personally, more leads are coming in. That may have more to do with the consumer confidence going up in August. Also, the fall season is approaching. To be completely honest, though, average job size is definitely down. There is definitely pent up demand. And we are seeing more and more people saying, "I don't care about the economy, I'm remodeling my kitchen anyway!"

And, yes, it all depends on what is going on in our own heads, too! I turned off the news and stopped reading the newspapers earlier this year. It was too depressing.

Here's to a great 2010!!

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joshua1

Hi, I believe 2010 IS going to be huge, especially here in Ireland- huge unemployment, huge cutbacks and huge levels of debt, combined with huge banking difficulties that are only just beginning to hit home. It may well be a lot better across the water in the US, but that small matter of the eleventy five squadzillion dollar national defecit, Cal on the verge of bankruptcy and greatly tightened credit terms does not bode well. Demolitions may do well if the proposals to clear vast tracts of uninhabited foreclosures pans out, but I'm not sure.
I hope im wrong, and i'm currently busy, but only because we do repairs and everyone over here is repairing not replacing. Every electrician, every plumber and every building contractor that I know is dying on their @ss at the moment, and dreading the onset of a bleak winter. Sorry to be so cheerful.j1.

nberman79

Oh it's definitely starting to pick up! I know the month is only 2 days old but we're seeing more and more jobs already. Very excited.

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CSB

Because "staying positive" and "supporting out president" don't mean anything. You can ride high in the positive thinking clouds your whole life, believing in yourself, blah blah blah or you can be real, find the leaks in yourself/business/country/whatever and make an effort to improve them. Supporting the president makes zero sense if you feel the government is not representing you. Both the current and past administrations are terrible and refuse to represent Americans as a whole, rather they choose to do favors for those who got them into power via chrony capitalism. Politicians as a whole do whats best for politicians and not citizens, and thats wrong. Your theory on blindly supporting an administration simply because its in place is lazy and downright vacuous. Dissent is both the highest form of patriotism and the spur that creates action.

Mike, I hope you're right. However, just because you were right about other things doesn't mean you'll be right about this one. Hundreds of correct predictions mean nothing as a few hundred is an insignificant sample to base observations on, its entirely too easy to confuse winning strategies with short-term variance. Buy 'Fooled By Randomness' for more on this, it will shock you.

ArtisticHomex

I hope so, the last 3 years, since about mid-2006 has sucked! I do remember several times, in my 16 years of running this, a very slow year followed by all hell breaking lose. Hope it happens again. The $1500 cash for glass hasn't done a dang thing over here.

dreamz

I hope so

dadkins0005

honestly when you factor all the variables unemployment is about 16%. The 10% they keep talking about does not include people who have given up, or those that have to work part time because they cant find full time, just the ones actively seeking employment. On the other hand, things are picking up noticably. Its definetly survival of the fittest, doors are shuttering, construction co's around here are belly flopping daily. We norm only do comm work, can you say residential: saving my arse

dadkins0005

my website keeps me going. nothing fancy, just the right key words. then we purchased att yellow pages deal, and thats prob what saved me. I never really had a residential client base, but I do now, and the sad thing is Im bidding this res. dble. and there is a residential contractor living right across the street, and he does not know who to call to even get the job. the reason is because the owner lives on the east coast.

soxwillwin2004

Dadkins- I appreciate that you're acknowledging the micro-economic side of our work and how a good business plan, aggressiveness, and creativity can help to offset the very real (and continuing) macro climate. Our company does residential business in D.C. Granted, we're better off than most, but competition is still intense. We've got a small shop, but I don't believe that I can't keep 8 guys busy in a city of 600,000 people unless the sky starts falling.
Regarding your ATT online Y pages, I signed a one year contract with those guys in DC and have had absolutely zero luck with this agreement, and it's become my albatross- much less successful than referrals and networking with local industry professionals. Would be curious and appreciative to get your take on how I might be able to turn the online advertising around.

fast fred

mike,

I'm comming down to get a slice of that pie in the spring. I'll be bringing my cousin, my brother in law, and my best friend. We do the best and fastest work ever.

But then again I've got a two year backlog fixing all the work the hacks were doing when things were booming.

I kind of like the way things are.

I'm always looking for work, doesn't matter if times are good or times are bad.

custrel

Well that's a rosy prediction, but just about every industry analyst out there thinks the opposite: construction in 2010 is going to much worse than 2009, especially commercial construction.

Commercial was the last sector to get hit hard in the Pac NW, and according to the Associated General Contractors analysis, it will be one of the last to recover. They think it will be 2012 before full recovery. And that's rosy compared to the govt's estimate that it will take 22 quarters of growth to recover to pre-recession levels.

Out here small businesses are going belly up which means a glut of lease space. You see empty and half-empty strip malls every where. The housing market has started to make a recovery because of foreclosure sales and low interest rates, but new home construction is still dead. Apartments and condos are also half-vacant which means that construction has also come to screeching halt. Big jobs are getting cancelled or scaled way back.

In 2009, even with two towers cancelled, Portland had almost a dozen towers (buildings 12 stories or more) go up. Guess how many are slated for 2010? Two. And that's if they don't get cancelled.

There is a lot of residential remodeling going on, but with 35,000 unemployed construction workers in OR/SW WA willing to take any side jobs they can get their hands on, competition is fierce and residential construction companies are being forced to lower their prices to compete.

About 20% of my business came from residential this year, but 70% was from govt funded projects, mainly school renovations and upgrades, and govt buildings.

Most of the other GCs I've worked for or worked with have asked their remaining guys to take pay cuts. Even the carpenter's union is taking a pay cut. Some of the residential GCs and remodelers who were mid-sized players have folded because they are getting squeezed by the competition from all the smaller companies - who can work for less, and from the bigger GCs who are turning their attention to smaller projects in order to survive.

Out here unless folks re-structure to lower their overhead, get used to lower profit margins, and take on work they normally wouldn't consider, they aren't going to make through 2010.