What's Next For Metal Roofing And How Will It Affect Your Roofing Business?

 
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Old 09-24-2017, 05:42 PM   #1
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What's Next For Metal Roofing And How Will It Affect Your Roofing Business?


So, metal roofing is currently enjoying anywhere from 15% to 20% (estimated) of the residential roofing market in the US, based on the figure of 750,000 metal roofs installed on homes in 2015, according to this popular ContractorTalk thread from earlier today: http://www.contractortalk.com/f15/me...market-349625/

Now, assuming there are about 5,000,000 residential roofs being installed/replaced every year in the US, 750,000 metal roofs are still a dismal figure, dwarfed by asphalt shingles.

1. Can you guys 'n gals offer your best educated guesses / estimates on how long it will likely take for metal roofing to double its current market share to propel it to 1,500,000 metal roofs installed on homes annually?

2. how do you think it will affect your roofing business if more homeowners start requesting metal roofing vs. asphalt? Will you price metal roofing differently from asphalt? What options will you be offering to homeowners if metal roofing really takes off?

I know metal roofing comes in many shapes and alloys encompassing r-panels, standing seam, metal shingles, stone-coated steel tiles as well as copper and zinc, etc. (https://www.roofingcalc.com/metal-roofing-cost/). What types of metal roofing do you currently offer or have installed in the past? How much do you charge for metal roofing vs. asphalt?

3. What do you think is the biggest obstacle to metal roofing becoming the "Numero Uno" roofing option in the US?

What are some of the greatest obstacles to the adoption of metal roofing? Is it the higher cost of metal roofing compared to the less-costly options such as asphalt? Is it the lack of professional installers who know how to install metal roofing correctly? Or is it the lack of education and apprehension in the eyes of consumers?
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Old 09-24-2017, 05:49 PM   #2
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Re: What's Next For Metal Roofing And How Will It Affect Your Roofing Business?


To address RoberM's post:

There's a monkey wrench just been thrown into the works.

That wrench is solar shingles.

doesn't matter who wins the day design-wise - within a couple of years, people are going to be talking primarily about solar shingles. Metal roofing, asphalt, tile - all will be "old hat".

That's the reality.

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Old 09-24-2017, 06:21 PM   #3
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Re: What's Next For Metal Roofing And How Will It Affect Your Roofing Business?


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Originally Posted by SmallTownGuy View Post
To address RoberM's post:

There's a monkey wrench just been thrown into the works.

That wrench is solar shingles.

doesn't matter who wins the day design-wise - within a couple of years, people are going to be talking primarily about solar shingles. Metal roofing, asphalt, tile - all will be "old hat".

That's the reality.
Do you think solar shingles will prove viable enough cost-wise and performance-wise to displace metal roofing?
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Old 09-24-2017, 06:29 PM   #4
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Re: What's Next For Metal Roofing And How Will It Affect Your Roofing Business?


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Do you think solar shingles will prove viable enough cost-wise and performance-wise to displace metal roofing?
Yup. I do.

In a way it's good for metal. Because metal will win out for all the small roof sections that aren't suitable to solarize.

If not Tesla/SolarCity, then maybe a chinese outfit. Because it's a global market. And places like Germany and Switzerland who are determined to be nuclear/coal/ petro independent will provide tax incentives.

It's a juggernaut in the making.
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Old 09-24-2017, 08:17 PM   #5
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Re: What's Next For Metal Roofing And How Will It Affect Your Roofing Business?


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Yup. I do.

In a way it's good for metal. Because metal will win out for all the small roof sections that aren't suitable to solarize.

If not Tesla/SolarCity, then maybe a chinese outfit. Because it's a global market. And places like Germany and Switzerland who are determined to be nuclear/coal/ petro independent will provide tax incentives.

It's a juggernaut in the making.
Those are somewhat valid points, but there are still a lot of unknowns that could easily derail the adoption of solar shingles in the next five to ten years.

As it stands today, solar shingles are still a loooooong way from becoming a viable solar roofing option that is ready for mainstream market adoption.

Elon Musk's new offering, Tesla Solar Roof, has yet to be proven viable, cost-efficient and market ready. The way things look now, only a few people in the upper middle class will be able and willing to afford it. -- If there is not enough demand in the next few years due to high cost of the product, lack of trained installers, and a wide availability of far less-costly solar options, then Tesla Solar Roof could end up the same way as Dow's solar shingles did.

Reliability and Performance Concerns: We still don't have any data to tell us how a solar shingle roof will perform reliability-wise. Furthermore, there are a lot of people who are skeptical about whether or not the roof itself will hold up to the elements, given the complexity of the installation and the likelihood of installer errors. -- This in itself could pave the path to bad press and early product failure.

More viable solar roofing options available to mass market: As far as other solar options go, a standing seam metal roof combined with PV solar panels is a highly potent solar roofing alternative. There are no roof penetrations to worry about and it's a way less-costly option than solar shingles will be in the foreseeable future. -- Thus, a standing seam integrated solar metal roofing alternative could prove way more enduring than solar shingles in the next 5 to 10 years window.

Lastly, if solar incentives from the government were to go away, suddenly, then most homeowners would not even consider investing in Tesla solar roof because there would no longer be any tax credits to help offset the very high cost of solar shingles investment.

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Old 09-25-2017, 06:47 AM   #6
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Re: What's Next For Metal Roofing And How Will It Affect Your Roofing Business?


Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertM View Post
................

More viable solar roofing options available to mass market: As far as other solar options go, a standing seam metal roof combined with PV solar panels is a highly potent solar roofing alternative. There are no roof penetrations to worry about and it's a way less-costly option than solar shingles will be in the foreseeable future. -- Thus, a standing seam integrated solar metal roofing alternative could prove way more enduring than solar shingles in the next 5 to 10 years window.
gosh, golly galoshes - you sort of remind me of a roofing solar/PV salesperson!

Quote:
.....................
Lastly, if solar incentives from the government were to go away, suddenly, then most homeowners would not even consider investing in Tesla solar roof because there would no longer be any tax credits to help offset the very high cost of solar shingles investment.
yeah. And the same goes for standing seam/PV panels.

The market penetration will be the same as it is for all new technology: Enter at the upper end, migrate down to the commodity market.

There is one thing going for solar shingles that PV panels cannot possibly do: solar shingles look like a roof system - PV panels look like dog sh!t.

Here's another: transferable warranty.

Another: solar shingles are a system. That means, one stop service. No more calling ABC Roofing only to be told that Quantum Solar is responsible for the "Zumwald 250 meta-conduit Transitional Widget". And vice-versa.

Or worse - to find out that ABC Roofing went out of business. The Tesla/SolarCity model more closely follows the Apple Brand model: A single corporate entity handles you from birth to death. They and only they take care of you, maintaining control of and providing an "exceptional experience".

Pay attention to that one: as systems become more complex, the ability of DIY repairs/3rd party diminish.

Another huge one: Selling power back to the grid. Regardless of system. Couple with a near-lifetime, transferable warranty - makes it not just an investment for the home owner - but the bank. Banks are going to appreciate it so much, they will write preferred paper for those with "lifetime" PV systems.

Even so, the Tesla/SolarCity product - or it's chinese equivalent - is just an interim solution, no different than metal roof with PV panels are today. There will be something even better: more integrated, more adaptable, less expensive to produce, greater energy producing to come along and kick it out of the way.

Just how it goes.
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Old 09-25-2017, 09:12 PM   #7
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Re: What's Next For Metal Roofing And How Will It Affect Your Roofing Business?


Putting your mildly condescending remarks aside, I can see you are pretty much sold on the idea of solar shingles, but most American households can't afford to shell out $65K for a solar shingle roof. So, unless that price is reduced by half, an unlikely scenario for the foreseeable future (at least a 5 year window), only upper middle class families will be able to afford it in the first place.

Metal roofs are already installed on many homes, and last time I checked, people are continuing to install metal roofing in droves. All those metal roofs will last for a very long time and no sane person will ever take down a metal roof just to install a solar shingles roof.

Keep in mind, solar shingles are still a new and unproven product. Not only that, but Tesla absorbed about 800 million in losses (in so called toxic assets added to its balance sheet) by acquiring SolarCity. Did you know that SolarCity was on the verge of facing bankruptcy? It would have gone out of business if that acquisition did not happen -- This market reality will likely put much pressure on the company to show profitability in their solar unit. The question now is whether there will even be enough early adopters to sustain the solar roof business as a viable entity within the larger Tesla enterprise.

Sure Tesla cars are a major cash cow, but solar shingles are still a big question mark and largely unproven.

If the solar incentives from the Government were to go away, PV solar panels will still be affordable enough at an average of $18K for a typical PV system installation, while Tesla solar roof at $65K will have no buyers, aside from a very small fraction of affluent people in the market.

I am sure that in five years from now the market will be different, and perhaps we will have a more viable solar shingle roofing option then. For the next five years, though, metal roofing will likely continue to gain momentum and grow, while asphalt will sustain a bit of a loss to metal.

I don't see Tesla becoming anything close to mainstream in the next five years. Not even sure, Tesla won't dump its solar division entirely, after losing many more millions of dollars on solar. Their solar battery packs do have legs and will be a saving grace if solar shingles turn out to be a dud.

Would love to hear from someone who actually installs metal roofing and get their thoughts on the future of metal roofing.

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Old 09-25-2017, 09:35 PM   #8
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Re: What's Next For Metal Roofing And How Will It Affect Your Roofing Business?


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Putting your mildly condescending remarks aside,
Oh grow a pair Nancy.

Quote:
I can see you are pretty much sold on the idea of solar shingles.
Wow. You saw right thru my condescension.

And that's about it for you.
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Old 09-25-2017, 10:12 PM   #9
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Re: What's Next For Metal Roofing And How Will It Affect Your Roofing Business?


Clearly you have no valid arguments left to substantiate your point or refute my logic, hence the insults.
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Old 09-26-2017, 05:42 AM   #10
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Re: What's Next For Metal Roofing And How Will It Affect Your Roofing Business?


Quote:
Do you think solar shingles will prove viable enough cost-wise and performance-wise to displace metal roofing?
To any crybaby:

I was asked whether I thought solar shingles were viable.

I responded.

If you are here to pimp a product, then register with ContractorTalk as a Service Provider.

Otherwise - G F Y.
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Old 09-26-2017, 06:59 AM   #11
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Re: What's Next For Metal Roofing And How Will It Affect Your Roofing Business?


Enough already.

And......metal roofs, which I have installed since the 90's, when EVERYONE hated them, except the people wanting a break on insurance and replacement costs, are actually, in some cases, cheaper now then 30 year shingle roofs.

I think solar roofs are an interesting concept, but due to the degree of manufacturing difficulty, the expense, the unknowns like insuring the roof, and that many, many homes simply don't align with the placement of the solar roofs, I doubt it will ever be anything more then a niche market.

You guys have to keep in mind that many areas of the country cannot support roof costs of $10 or more per sq/ft, the cost of a high end metal roof. In Oklahoma, you can get a 26 gauge metal panel roof with exposed fasteners installed for $2 a sq/ft, or $200 a square. If you want a snap panel roof, $4 a sq/ft. And roofers make money at this. Material costs are less then $1 and extras would be tear-offs and maybe strapping a roof if desirable, or adding insulation.

When you get to the awesome aggregate covered metal shingles, then you are going to sell very few, because the average home owner simply cannot afford those products.

Imagine if you will that most homes in America are median incomes and most people can't pony up the additional money to go to a high end roof....you don't see many Cadillac dealers on most main streets....

So try to sell a solar roof system costing as much as the original house was to build in the average neighborhood in America...and don't hold your breath. Tax credits don't do you any good if you don't have the investment capital anyway, and it would break the government to pony up the wholesale installation of roofs across America.
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Old 09-26-2017, 07:36 AM   #12
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Re: What's Next For Metal Roofing And How Will It Affect Your Roofing Business?


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Enough already.

And......metal roofs, which I have installed since the 90's

.........................

Imagine if you will that most homes in America are median incomes and most people can't pony up the additional money to go to a high end roof....you don't see many Cadillac dealers on most main streets....

So try to sell a solar roof system costing as much as the original house was to build in the average neighborhood in America...and don't hold your breath. Tax credits don't do you any good if you don't have the investment capital anyway, and it would break the government to pony up the wholesale installation of roofs across America.
When I started in this business, 3 tab,180 pounds per square were standard, 220 pound/square was out of reach of most.

Today, archi grade are standard on new builds. Products are not static. What was top of the line moves down the economic scale. Always has.

I really don't give a damn about your re-roofs. I build NEW homes. The game changer - is that solar shingles produce dollars. The banks will write better paper for those.

Yes they will.

It's a fact. It's not some day, its not 5-10 years down the road.

The entry point for solar shingles will be new homes. Whoever it is - Tesla/SolarCity - or a chinese outfit - will market directly to the new home, upscale builder, and as they gain market penetration, it will quickly move down-market.

You can look around at so many other products that have done exactly the same - granite counters for example.

In 2001, we were the only outfit offering granite - but in a huge new home project. by 2005, there were 3 shops I could pick granite from.

By 2007, downscale marketing included cheaper, 1" thick granite with built up edges to look like "the real thing".

That's just how it works in this industry.

Welcome to the new world.

And guess what? In another 10 years, solar shingles - as we know them today - will also be obsolete.

I cannot imagine what that will be - I do know that integrated, energy producing roofing is here and here to stay.

Well, until "cheap fusion" gets invented.
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Old 09-26-2017, 07:40 AM   #13
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Re: What's Next For Metal Roofing And How Will It Affect Your Roofing Business?


I think metal roofing will continue to gradually increase market share, but shingle roofs are still going to be around and the majority of roofing sold for a real long time. There is just too much cost difference between the cost of a metal roof and a shingle roof. A good shingle roof will last 20 years or more, and most people don't look any longer term than that.

I think the solar shingle and the solar panels mounted on roofs are a pretty dumb idea and is unlikely to ever get serious traction. First, solar panels, shingles, etc. have not yet gotten to the point where they come close to making financial sense. You have to have excess funds on hand, and installing a solar system just has to be something that you want to do, the payoff is too long and possibly non-existent. Secondly, mounting solar stuff atop a roof means punching more holes in the roof (leaks), makes things difficult to access and work on, etc. Then think about how expensive a re-roof will be dealing with the solar stuff when it comes time to do so.
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Old 09-26-2017, 08:53 AM   #14
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Re: What's Next For Metal Roofing And How Will It Affect Your Roofing Business?


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I really don't give a damn about your re-roofs. I build NEW homes. The game changer - is that solar shingles produce dollars. The banks will write better paper for those.

Yes they will.
Since new construction is a small market percentage, it is easy to not "give a damn"...if that is how you feel about the roofing industry, why comment? This is an interesting discussion, and did not say specifically "new construction", like guys who are professional roofers doing replacement roofs are somehow beneath you. That is condescending.

I don't do replacement roofs, and haven't for probably 10 years. The reason? When I was doing a lot of them, new construction was down, like no new homes in our area, and I found a niche to fill. We did 200+ roofs in metal in 10 years or so, and it paid the bills. I had little competition, and there were many naysayers who said they looked like barn roofs, tractor sheds, cow bars, blah blah blah.... And now, it seems like every roofing crew will install metal roofs.

On new construction also. I am building a home right now that will get a composition roof...first in years that I am not doing a metal roof on.

Now that said...I don't give a damn about solar roofs, because while it may be cutting edge, it may the latest and greatest on the market, it is years away from ever being affordable on most new construction, and I would rather focus on specialties that work in my area, for my business.

I do a tight ICF home complete with a concrete roof...and that is a niche market I fill very well.
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Old 09-26-2017, 08:59 AM   #15
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Re: What's Next For Metal Roofing And How Will It Affect Your Roofing Business?


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I think metal roofing will continue to gradually increase market share, but shingle roofs are still going to be around and the majority of roofing sold for a real long time. There is just too much cost difference between the cost of a metal roof and a shingle roof. A good shingle roof will last 20 years or more, and most people don't look any longer term than that.
The point i was driving at was indeed cost. All things being said, if architectural shingles are more then $300 a square, and metal is $1 a sq, how do you arrive at the conclusion there is too much cost difference?

There are areas in my state that have suffered roof damage like 5 times in 8 years, meaning total roof replacement. The insurance industry is now doing stuff like 1% of the home vale for a deductible, and rates are going up, as well as some insurers leaving the market.

Metal roofs here, meaning basic panelized roofs, get a 25% discount for a homeowner on his yearly premium, and sometimes more, and all the homeowner has to do is agree to a "appearance waiver", meaning if the roof fades or it gets dented from hail, or whatever, as long as it doesn't leak, no claim will be paid.

More and more people are getting on board in the plains states, and more roofers are seeing the advantage due to smaller crew size, easy to learn, and more profit.
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Old 09-26-2017, 09:36 AM   #16
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Re: What's Next For Metal Roofing And How Will It Affect Your Roofing Business?


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Since new construction is a small market percentage, it is easy to not "give a damn"...if that is how you feel about the roofing industry, why comment? This is an interesting discussion, and did not say specifically "new construction", like guys who are professional roofers doing replacement roofs are somehow beneath you. That is condescending.

.......................
No. It's not condescending. It is factual. The roofers I know do both re-roof AND new. I just don't give a damn about reroofs. My "roofing business" is in the new home segment - which is huge. It's where all the other homes come from.

What no one told you?

However, those in the roofing industry who do re-roofs should pay attention to solar shingles. They will dramatically alter the markets available to the conventional roofing contractor.

The thread title asked: "What's Next for Metal Roofing and How will it Affect your Roofing Business?"

And here's what I'm telling you: What is new in metal roofs is solar shingles.

They are not "some day", they are NOW.

It is a juggernaut. It's a game changer. And it is now.

Over the summer, Tesla/SolarCity finally got UL approvals.
They've already sold out their first years manufacturing capacity in advance orders.

Hanergy already has UL, plus TUV & CE approval. "Supply Ability:1,000,000,000 Watt/Watts per Year".
And Hanergy is the world's largest thin film producer. They have the entire country of China as a customer base, that country only has dirty brown coal and is hungry for solar. And China has the whole world for its market.

Which will drive down costs.


Utility companies are in fact some of the biggest proponents of ANYTHING that reduces energy loads. They finance relamping of industrial buildings. Some, like DTE here, have already stated they will finance solar roofs.

Within 2 years, Tesla/SolarCity or its Chinese equivalent will be the only product people will be talking about.

Now then; My first reply - I offered a factual assessment of what I know to be true. I do not prefer one type over another. I do insist I know where the market is going, and that I stay on top of that.

If you all want to argue fantasy vs fact - fine by me. I can only deal with facts.

But I'm telling you: two years.

The metal contractors I know are the ones who are convinced and already discussing how they will be changing their business model.
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Old 09-26-2017, 10:10 AM   #17
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Re: What's Next For Metal Roofing And How Will It Affect Your Roofing Business?


Ok...if you are right, who will be the clients two years down the road? The new homes that are 1 million plus?

If you deal in facts, pull the stats on new homes across America....average square footage, average cost, average income of purchasers...and then tell me again, who is buying?
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Old 09-26-2017, 10:26 AM   #18
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Re: What's Next For Metal Roofing And How Will It Affect Your Roofing Business?


So a quick look....how much per square foot? $3,300 per square?


How We Did the Math

To get there, we pulled together ballpark pricing for the various roofing materials Tesla’s solar shingles mimic, from sources like the Slate Roofing Contractors Association, the Tile Roofing Institute, and the Remodeling 2016 Cost vs. Value Report.

There are plenty of variables, of course, including the location of the home and shape and height of the roof. (And we’re leaving out any consideration of solar rebates and incentives.) But here’s what the installed costs look like for the roughly 3,000 square feet of roofing needed to cover an average size home in the U.S.

Clay Tile: $16,000
Asphalt: $20,000
Slate: $45,000

So how could a $73,500 roof be considered cost-competitive with a $20,000 asphalt roof? To compensate for the proposed added value of the “free” electricity from Tesla’s roof, we added in $2,000 a year, over the lifespan of the roof. That’s a typical electric bill in states where solar is big, like California, Texas, and North Carolina.

Tesla says the life expectancy of its tiles will be 30 years. So that adds $60,000 to the value of the roof. (Our rough estimate assumes our hypothetical Solar Roof homes generate exactly as much electricity as they use.)

One final factor: the Tesla Solar Roof will work like any rooftop solar system, connecting to your home’s electric panel through an inverter. You could stop there, but the system is being packaged alongside Tesla’s forthcoming Powerwall 2.0, a battery storage device with a built-in inverter and an installed cost of $6,500. Combining Solar Roof and Powerwall 2.0, Musk promises, will power an entire home with 100 percent renewable energy.

The easy way to factor in the cost of a Powerwall to our roofing calculation is to subtract it from the value of the electricity over the life of the roof. So $60,000 worth of electricity becomes $53,500. (Though we should note that the warranty of the Powerwall 2.0 is 10 years, so you would most likely need to replace it more than once over the life of the shingles).

So put all that together, and here's how Tesla would need to price its tiles to meet Musk's claims.

Tuscan Tile (Tesla's equivalant of clay tile) would need to cost less than $69,500, installed (or about $2,300 per 100 square feet), to beat its traditional counterpart;
Smooth and Textured Tile (Tesla's equivalent to asphalt tile) would need to cost less than $73,500, installed (or about $2,450 per 100 square feet);
Slate Tile would need to cost less than $98,500 (or about $3,300 per 100 square feet).
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Bottom line: For sure, $70,000 to $100,000 is a lot to spend on a roof. If Tesla's roofing tiles end up priced that high, it will be because consumers will essentially be paying for long-term electricity costs up front, according to Musk’s formula. And even if Solar Roof products cost less than our estimates, it will most certainly be initially aimed at the luxury home market.


https://www.consumerreports.org/roof...es-could-cost/


Initially for high end roofs? Yep.

Now, lets apply a little no frill science here: The manufacture of the solar shingles requires a supply a rare earth metals.....hence why solar panels never seem to be cheap anyway. If the demand were say 1/4 of conventional roofing, what would the market be on rare earth metals?

And batteries? Isn't the footprint of Telsa's automobiles being questioned due to the current battery technology and how dirty they are for the environment?
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Last edited by Joasis; 09-26-2017 at 10:29 AM.
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Old 09-26-2017, 10:38 AM   #19
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Re: What's Next For Metal Roofing And How Will It Affect Your Roofing Business?


Far as I know, the Tesla Solar shingle isn't even available for sale in the US at this time, so it's not really an option. If you want solar on your roof now, you have to mount panels.

Maybe someday they will get that shingle to market and competitively priced, but at this point it's all just talk.
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Old 09-26-2017, 11:31 AM   #20
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Re: What's Next For Metal Roofing And How Will It Affect Your Roofing Business?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Joasis View Post
Ok...if you are right, who will be the clients two years down the road? The new homes that are 1 million plus?

If you deal in facts, pull the stats on new homes across America....average square footage, average cost, average income of purchasers...and then tell me again, who is buying?
Let's get this straight - I'm not your dog. I'm just relaying what I know as a builder.

Have you checked into this -the solar shingle/pv panel industry? I'm not being a smart ass here or condescending, but it begs the
question. The numbers are already pretty well known.

Quote:
A new type of loan is making solar energy accessible to even more people. Fannie Mae’s HomeStyle® Energy mortgage gives borrowers the ability to complete clean energy upgrades up to 15% of the as-completed appraised property value of the home. Borrowers are able to finance energy-efficient upgrades when purchasing or refinancing a home, eliminating the need for a subordinate lien, home equity line of credit, Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) loan, or unsecured loan. The mortgage requires homeowners to attain a home energy report in order to show the value gained through energy savings over time is greater than the installation price tag.

The above is old news. It's been in place for several years. But its already an in place fact.

A number of banks have also stated they will write paper for the whole number on new builds. The warranty must be transferable and extend to the life of the mortgage.

Buyer analytics show (as of 2016) a willingness to pay a premium for rooftop solar (regardless of technology) to the amount of $15K.

Using Tesla's (outdated) data: 3,000 square feet (1 story) – $55,600 for a solar shingle roof.

Average utility bill: $2,000. Multiplying that by the 30 year life span Tesla says customers can expect from their Solar Roof, that comes out to $60,000.

Also: "typical roof size in the US of 3,000 square feet, average cost of a clay tile roof is $16,000, an asphalt shingle roof is $20,000 and a slate roof is $45,000."

Now, whether those numbers work at all, they demonstrate one thing: No matter how cheap you can install any other roof product - only solar shingles or PV panels generate dollars.

Even if a solar shingle roof completely craps out - it is still a roof. A metal/steel roof I might add. And it's installed/backed by a national manufacturer/supplier/certified contractor. One stop.

The customer will love it -the banks already do love it.

When A PV panel system craps out - it's just a dead piece of obsolete technology sitting on the roof, getting in the way of the roofing contractor when leaks happen.

Now then: "who will be the clients two years down the road?".

The same people who are buying 3-4 bed, 2-1/2 bath, "move-ups" in the new developments. What I call "Buick buyers" with Chevy budgets & Cadillac expectations.

That's where the huge numbers are - and it follows most of the housing above that threshold.

Nationally? I can't say. I would expect fewer installs initially in a state like Oklahoma or Louisiana or West Virginia where median incomes are lower. I would likewise expect installation rates to be much higher from California all the way up the western seaboard, and also in places like Las Vegas or Phoenix.

Michigan, as usual, is middle of the road. But I will tell you the first all-electric development has already been approved this year in Washtenaw County, which is outside of and surrounds Ann Arbor. Residential units will range from 700 sf to 2800 sf.


Now you can come up with numbers that say it just doesn't work. Well, guess what - others already have.

It won't matter.

What remains true, is that PV panels and solar shingles produce sell-able energy that offsets cost.

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